Friday, November 09, 2018

Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 11/09/2018 01:25:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 3.7% for 3Q GDP and 2.8% for 4Q. [Nov 9 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on November 9, unchanged from November 2. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched down from -0.05 percentage points to -0.08 percentage points after this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. [Nov 9 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q4 stands at 2.7%. News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point. A positive surprise from producer prices data accounted for most of the increase.[Nov 9 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest GDP in the high 2s for Q4.