Friday, November 16, 2018

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

by Bill McBride on 11/16/2018 03:23:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.31 million in October, up 3.1% from October’s preliminary estimate, and down 3.5% from last October’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a smaller YOY decline, reflecting the higher business day count this October compared to last October.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale in October was down slightly from September, and I project that the NAR’s estimate of the inventory of existing homes for sales at the end of October will be 1.85 million, down 1.6% from September and up 2.8% from a year ago.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up about 4.5% from last October.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release October existing home sales on Wednesday, Nov 21st.  The early consensus is that the NAR will report sales of 5.18 million SAAR.