Friday, September 14, 2018

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 9/14/2018 11:37:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

3Q GDP tracking received a 0.5pp boost from this morning's data, leaving us at 3.7%. 2Q remains at 4.4%. [Sept 14 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 14, up from 3.8 percent on September 11. [Sept 14 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2018:Q3 and 2.8% for 2018:Q4. [Sept 14 estimate]
CR Note: It looks like GDP will be in the 3s in Q3.