Friday, August 17, 2018

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 8/17/2018 11:19:00 AM

From Goldman Sachs:

We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +3.2% [Aug 16 estimate].
emphasis added
From Merrill Lynch:
We nudged down 3Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 3.3%. [Aug 15 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.3 percent on August 16, unchanged from August 15 after rounding. [Aug 16 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q3 stands at 2.4%. [Aug 17 estimate]
CR Note: Since it is early, the range of estimates are wide.  These estimates suggest real annualized GDP in the 2.4% to 4.3% range in Q3.