Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Housing Starts decreased to 1.173 Million Annual Rate in June

by Bill McBride on 7/18/2018 08:39:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,173,000. This is 12.3 percent below the revised May estimate of 1,337,000 and is 4.2 percent below the June 2017 rate of 1,225,000. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 858,000; this is 9.1 percent below the revised May figure of 944,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 304,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,273,000. This is 2.2 percent below the revised May rate of 1,301,000 and is 3.0 percent below the June 2017 rate of 1,312,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 850,000; this is 0.8 percent above the revised May figure of 843,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 387,000 in June.
emphasis added
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in June compared to May.   Also Multi-family starts were down 14% year-over-year in June.

Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and  has been mostly moving sideways the last few years.

Single-family starts (blue) decreased in June, and were up 0.2% year-over-year.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically fairly low).

Total housing starts in June were well below expectations, and starts for April and May were both revised down.

I'll have more later ...