Thursday, May 29, 2014

Q1 GDP Revised Down to -1.0% Annual Rate, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 300,000

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2014 08:41:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2014 (Second Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first quarter according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent. ...

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP was estimated to have increased 0.1 percent. ...

The second estimate of the first-quarter percent change in real GDP was revised down 1.1 percentage points, or $43.7 billion, from the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting a downward revision to private inventory investment and an upward revision to imports that were partly offset by an upward revision to exports.
Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 3.0% to 3.1%.

The DOL reports:
In the week ending May 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 300,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 326,000 to 327,000. The 4-week moving average was 311,500, a decrease of 11,250 from the previous week 's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since August 11, 2007 when it was 311,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 322,500 to 322,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The previous week was revised up from 326,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 311,500.

This was below the consensus forecast of 317,000.  The 4-week average is at the lowest level since 2007 and at normal levels for an expansion.