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Friday, December 27, 2013

Preliminary: 2014 Housing Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2013 11:23:00 AM

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.

Here was a summary of forecasts for 2013. Right now it looks like new home sales will be around 433 thousand this year, and total starts around 935 thousand or so.  David Crowe (NAHB) was very close on New Home sales for 2013.  Fannie Mae was the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows a few forecasts for 2014.

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: December 2013

From NAHB: Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 12/7/2013 (excel)

I haven't worked up a forecast yet for 2014.

Housing Forecasts for 2014
New Home Sales (000s)Single Family Starts (000s)Total Starts (000s)House Prices1
Fannie Mae5187681,1065.9%2
Merrill Lynch517 1,1006.3%
Wells Fargo5358001,1402.7%
Zillow    4.6%3
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index
3Zillow Home Value Index