Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Thursday: Vehicle Sales, Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2013 08:29:00 PM

Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month.

From the National Restaurant Association: Despite June Decline, Restaurant Performance Index Remains Steadily Positive

As a result of positive sales and traffic and an optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) remained in expansion territory in June. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 101.3 in June, down 0.5 percent from May’s level of 101.8. Despite the decline, June represented the fourth consecutive month that the RPI exceeded the 100 level, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

“Although the overall RPI dipped somewhat in June, it remained in positive territory as restaurant operators continued to report gains in both sales and customer traffic,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “Looking forward, restaurant operators remain generally optimistic about the business environment in the months ahead, with the Expectations Index holding steady at a 12-month high.”
Restaurant Performance Index Click on graph for larger image.

The index decreased to 101.3 in June from 101.8 in May. (above 100 indicates expansion).

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 345 thousand from 343 thousand last week.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for July. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 15.8 million SAAR in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 15.9 million SAAR in June.

• At 9:00 AM, The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the index to increase to 53.1 from 51.9 in June.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for an increase to 53.1 from 50.9 in June. Based on the regional surveys, an increase in July seems likely. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June at 50.9%. The employment index was at 48.7%, and the new orders index was at 51.9%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.