Thursday, January 26, 2012

Case Shiller House Price Forecasts: New Post-bubble lows Seasonally Adjusted

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2012 05:07:00 PM

The Case Shiller house price indexes for November will be released next Tuesday. Here are a couple of forecasts:

• Zillow Forecast: November Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.2% Decline from One Year Ago

Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.7 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from October to November will be -0.2 percent and -0.1 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
• From RadarLogic: Home Prices Declined at an Accelerating Rate in November as Sales Increased
The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for November 2011 will decline again on a month-over-month basis.
...
This month, we expect the November 2011 10-City composite index to be about 152 and the 20-City index to be roughly 138.
Below is a summary table. Case-Shiller will probably report house prices are at a new post-bubble low seasonally adjusted, but still above the NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted) levels of March 2011.

 Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller (actual)Nov-10157.5156.44143.77142.77
 Oct-11154.1152.24140.3138.56
Zillow ForecastYoY-2.7%-2.7%-3.2%-3.2%
 MoM-0.6%-0.1%-0.8%-0.2%
Zillow Forecasts1153.2152.2139.2138.2
RadarLogic Forecast152 138 
Post Bubble Lows2150.44152.24137.64138.56
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts
2NSA lows were in March 2011, SA lows were last month.