Friday, August 19, 2011

More downward revisions to economic forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2011 09:20:00 PM

Below are some downward forecast revisions released last night and today. If these forecasts are close, then the unemployment rate will probably increase over the next few quarters too ...

• From Wells Fargo today:

Based on the evidence we have reviewed ... we have concluded there are now significant downside risks to economic growth over the near term. Our forecast now calls for real GDP to rise 1.6 percent in 2011 and 1.1 percent in 2012 ... it is entirely possible the current downward spiral in the economy and financial markets will become self-reinforcing. We will be monitoring high frequency data for further signs of economic deterioration and revise our outlook as needed.
• From Goldman Sachs today:
In light of the downshift in the data this week, we are cutting our second-half growth forecasts further. We now expect GDP growth of 1.0% in Q3 and 1.5% in Q4, both down from 2.0% previously.
• From JPMorgan via MarketWatch: J.P. Morgan further cuts U.S. growth forecast (ht jb)
Economists at J.P. Morgan on Friday further cut estimates for U.S. economic growth and warned that recession risks are "clearly elevated." While the outlook for third-quarter growth looks only "moderately softer" than previously projected, the economists, in a research note, said they have slashed the outlook for fourth-quarter growth to 1% from a previous projection of 2.5%. They also lowered their first-quarter 2012 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.5%.
• From Citigroup last night via Bloomberg: U.S. Economic Growth Estimates Cut at Citigroup
[Citigroup analysts] cut its 2011 gross domestic product growth forecast to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent and lowered its 2012 GDP growth estimate to 2.1 percent from 2.7 percent.