Thursday, June 23, 2011

Chicago Fed: Economic growth remained below average in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2011 03:22:00 PM

No surprise (this is a composite index) ... from the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic growth remained below average in May

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to –0.19 in May from –0.15 in April, remaining negative for a second consecutive month and reaching its lowest level since November 2010. May’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

According to the Chicago Fed:
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.
This index suggests the economy was still growing in May, but below trend.