Saturday, May 21, 2011

Schedule for Week of May 22nd

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2011 02:11:00 PM

Summary for Week Ending May 20th

The key reports this week will be New Home Sales on Tuesday (more depression for homebuilders), the second estimate for Q1 GDP on Thursday (expect an upward revision), and the Personal Income and Outlays report for April on Friday (an early hint at consumer spending in Q2).

There are also a number of regional Fed speeches this week, and the FDIC will probably release the Q1 quarterly banking profile, although no release date is scheduled.

It will be interesting to see if lower gasoline prices show up in the final Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment report on Friday. Also the initial weekly unemployment claims on Thursday will be closely watched for signs of renewed labor market weakness.

----- Monday, May 23rd -----

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April). This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, May 24th -----

8:25 AM: Speech, Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke on Financial Education,
At the Conference on "The Future of Life-Cycle Saving and Investing," Boston, Massachusetts

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau.

New Home Sales and RecessionsClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the March sales rate.

The consensus is for sales at a 300 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in April, unchanged from the March sales rate.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey for May. The consensus is for the survey to show modest expansion with a reading of 10.

----- Wednesday, May 25th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through mid-year (not counting all cash purchases).

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.0% decrease in durable goods orders after increasing 4.1% in March.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

----- Thursday, May 26th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of claims increased over the last month, although claims appear to be trending down again.. The consensus is for a decrease to 404,000 from 409,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Q1 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q1 GDP from the BEA.

GDP Growth Rate This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The advance estimate was for 1.8% annualized growth in Q1. This was below trend growth (around 3.1%) - and very weak for a recovery, especially with all the slack in the system. The blue column is for Q1.

The consensus is for an upward revision to 2.1% annualized real GDP growth.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for May. The index was at 14 in April, down from a record 27 in March.

----- Friday, May 27th -----

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for April. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March (2005 dollars).

Personal Consumption ExpendituresPCE increased 0.5% in March, but real PCE only increased 0.2% as the price index for PCE increased 0.4 percent in March.

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income in April, and a 0.4% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for May). The consensus is for a slight increase to 72.5 from the preliminary reading of 72.4.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April.

Best wishes to All!