Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Lawler: Early Read on October Existing Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2010 06:18:00 PM

CR Note: This is from housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on data available so far, it would appear as if national existing home sales in October ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate that was little changed from September [4.53 million SAAR]. Of course, October’s YOY sales decline on an unadjusted basis is significantly larger than September’s. But October sales were significantly goosed (SAAR of 5.98 million) last October by the expiring (or so folks thought!) first time home buyer tax credit. In addition, there was one fewer business day this October than last October.

The incoming listings data have on average been consistent with the realtor.com data showing a 3.2% decline in existing home sales inventory in October.

CR Note: A 3.2% decline in inventory, and sales of 4.53 million SAAR would put the months-of-supply at about 10.4 months in October. That would be the fourth straight month of double digit supply.

Based on this early forecast, YoY sales would be off 24%, and inventory would be up close to 10% YoY.

Existing home sales for October will be released on Tuesday November 23rd at 10 AM ET.