Sunday, October 31, 2010

Schedule for Week of Oct 31st

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2010 01:14:00 PM

The previous post is the Summary for Week ending Oct 30th.

The highly anticipated second round of Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE2) will be announced on Wednesday at 2:15 PM (when the FOMC statement is released). The key economic release this week is the October employment report on Friday.

----- Monday, Nov 1st -----

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income and a 0.4% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for 54.5 or about the same as the 54.4 in September.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for a 0.5% decline in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, Nov 2nd -----

10:00 AM: Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau. In Q2 2010, this report indicated that the homeownership rate fell to the lowest level since 1999 (66.9% in Q2 2010). The homeowner and rental vacancy rates provide a hint at the number of excess housing units (Note: this data is based on limited surveys and an estimate of the housing inventory).

Expected: October Personal Bankruptcy Filings

----- Wednesday, Nov 3rd -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for +20,000 payroll jobs in October - still weak, but an improvement over the 39,000 jobs reported lost in September.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October. Light vehicle sales are expected to increase in October to around 12.0 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 11.76 million in September. If correct, this will be highest sales rate in 2 years (excluding Cash-for-clunkers in August 2009).

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for September. The consensus is for a 1.8% increase in orders. Also important will be the growth in inventories, and the inventory-to-sales ratio.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for an increase to 54.0 from 53.2 in September.

2:15 PM: FOMC statement released. The key will be how the FOMC will implement the 2nd round of quantitative easing.

----- Thursday, Nov 4th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for about an increase to 445,000 from 434,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Productivity and Costs for Q3 (Preliminary). The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in unit labor costs.

----- Friday, Nov 5th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is an increase of 60,000 payroll jobs in October, and for the unemployment rate to stay steady at 9.6%.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is for a 3% increase in contracts signed. It usually takes 45 to 60 days to close, so this will provide an early indication of closings in November.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for September. The consensus is for another $3 billion decline in consumer credit.

After 4:00 PM: The FDIC will probably have another busy Friday afternoon ...

Note: The Atlanta Fed will host a conference at Jekyll Island, Georgia on November 5th and 6th: The Origins, History, and Future of the Federal Reserve. On Saturday there will be a discussion of "the overvaluation of assets such as land" and the "appropriate policy responses". Also Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and previous Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan are scheduled to participate on a panel "on the purpose, structure, and functions of the Federal Reserve System".