Monday, February 08, 2010

Party Like it's 1999

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2010 04:00:00 PM

From March 29, 1999: A CNBC Promo ...

Four Bear Recoveries Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short of (financial planner). His comments:
This chart ... shifts the point of alignment ... to the bear bottom in the Oil Crisis and Tech Crash, the first major low in the 1929 Dow, and the March 9th closing low for our current Financial Crisis.

As the chart illustrates, the S&P 500 lows in 1974 and 2002 marked the beginnings of sustained recoveries. The Dow low in 1929 failed 11 months later.
S&P 500 The second graph shows daily closing prices for the Dow since Jan 1999. The dashed line is 10,000.

The Dow has crossed the 10,000 level many times, and my Dow 10K hat is worn out.

Of course there is nothing magical about 10K - it is just a round number.