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Thursday, May 28, 2009

Report: $75 billion of CMBS Market Capitalization Lost in Two Days

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2009 08:35:00 PM

In a research note today, Citigroup analysts estimated that "more than $75 billion of CMBS market capitalization has been lost" since the S&P request for comment on changes to their U.S. CMBS rating methodology was issued two days ago.

S&P noted:

Our preliminary findings indicate that approximately 25%, 60%, and 90% of the most senior tranches (by count) within the 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages, respectively, may be downgraded.
Citigroup commented that the changes were "a complete surprise", "flawed", lacked "justification" and the "S&P methodology changes do not seem rational or predictable". Ouch.

Citi also noted that this will impact the CMBS legacy TALF announced last week by the Fed. According to Citi the "S&P changes could impact nearly 40% of the triple-A TALF eligible universe" and they expect the Fed to change their criteria.