by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2017 01:22:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 0.5% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in May.   Outbound traffic was down 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in May.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

In general imports have been increasing, and exports are moving sideways.

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2017 10:43:00 AM

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the June 2017 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April and May 2009, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Then sales increased more than 2 1/2 times, and hit 479 thousand SAAR in June 2015.

Heavy truck sales declined again - probably mostly due to the weakness in the oil sector - and bottomed at 352 thousand SAAR in October 2016.


Click on graph for larger image.

With the increase in oil prices over the last year, heavy truck sales have been increasing too.

Heavy truck sales were at 402 thousand SAAR in June 2017.>

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2017 08:34:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell ten points to 9.8. The new orders index moved down to 13.3, and the shipments index fell to 10.5, suggesting that orders and shipments continued to grow, though at a somewhat slower pace than in June. ...
...
The index for number of employees fell for a third consecutive month, though it remained positive at 3.9 — a sign that employment was growing, but not as rapidly as in earlier months. The average workweek index fell to zero, indicating that hours worked remained the same. ...

Indexes assessing the six-month outlook remained favorable, though firms were somewhat less optimistic about future conditions than in June.
emphasis added

This was below the consensus forecast of a reading of 15.0.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2017 07:49:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of July 16, 2017

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 15.0, down from 19.8.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures and DOW futures are up slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $46.61 per barrel and Brent at $48.91 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $46, and Brent was at $46 - so oil prices are up slightly year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.24 per gallon - a year ago prices were at $2.22 per gallon - so gasoline prices are up slightly year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2017 09:10:00 AM

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For several years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes with a dramatic shift from distressed sales to more normal equity sales.

This data suggested healing in the Sacramento market and other distressed markets showed similar improvement.  Note: The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

In June, total sales were up 0.5% from June 2016, and conventional equity sales were up 2.5% compared to the same month last year.

In June, 4.2% of all resales were distressed sales. This was down from 4.7% last month, and down from 7.0% in May 2016.

The percentage of REOs was at 1.6%, and the percentage of short sales was 1.6%.

Sacramento Realtor Press Release: Most monthly sales since July 2009, median price continues to increase

June showed a 5.4% increase in sale from May, up to 1,824 sales from 1,731. This is the most monthly sales since July 2009, when that month closed with 1,848. Compared with 2016, current number is also an increase, rising .5% from the 1,815 sales of June 2016.
...
Total Active Listing Inventory increased 8.8% from 1,935 to 2,105 for the month, but is a 18.3% drop from the 2,577 inventory of June last year. The Months of Inventory increased slightly for the month from 1.1 Months to 1.2MMonths. A year ago the Months of inventory was 1.4. Listings published for the month decreased .3% from 2,385 to 2,377. “Listings published” signifies all listings that came on the market for the current month. Of the 2,385 listings that came on the market for the month of June, 870 were still listed as active, 1,203 are currently pending sales, 177 were already sold and 127 are either off the market, expired or other.

The Average DOM (days on market) for homes sold dropped from 20 to 18 days.

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales.

There has been a sharp increase in conventional (equity) sales that started in 2012 (blue) as the percentage of distressed sales declined sharply.

Active Listing Inventory for single family homes decreased 18.3% year-over-year (YoY) in June.  This was the 26th consecutive monthly YoY decrease in inventory in Sacramento.

Cash buyers accounted for 12.3% of all sales - this has been generally declining (frequently investors).

Summary: This data suggests a normal market with few distressed sales, and less investor buying - but with limited inventory.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2017 08:11:00 AM

The key economic report this week is June Housing Starts on Wednesday.

For manufacturing, the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.

----- Monday, July 17th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 15.0, down from 19.8.

----- Tuesday, July 18th -----
10:00 AM: The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 68, up from 67 in June. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Wednesday, July 19th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.170 million SAAR, up from the May rate of 1.092 million.

This graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

The graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, July 20th -----
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 245 thousand initial claims, down from 247 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 23.5, down from 27.6.

----- Friday, July 21st -----
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for June 2017

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2017 06:13:00 PM

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on July 14, 2017:

• Total US oil rigs were up 2 to 765

• Horizontal oil rigs were down 2 to 655
...
• Conclusion: The Eagle Ford is visibly struggling, the Bakken has been adapting, the Permian is still in play, and a lot is going on off-radar in the ‘Other’ basins

• $45 WTI seems to be the lower limit for the US shale patch

Click on graph for larger image.

CR note: This graph shows the US horizontal rig count by basin.

Graph and comments Courtesy of Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC.

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2017 02:11:00 PM

The BLS reported this morning:

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 238.813 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

• In 2016, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 235.057.

This was the highest Q3 average, so we have to compare Q3 this year to last year.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.

Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year).

CPI-W was up 1.5% year-over-year in June, and although this is very early - we need the data for July, August and September - my current guess is COLA will be positive this year, and will probably be around 1% to 2% this year.

Contribution and Benefit Base

The law prohibits an increase in the contribution and benefit base if COLA is not greater than zero.  However if the there is even a small increase in COLA (seems likely this year), the contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index.

From Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustment Must Be Greater Than Zero

... ... any amount that is directly dependent for its value on the COLA would not increase. For example, the maximum Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payment amounts would not increase if there were no COLA.

... if there were no COLA, section 230(a) of the Social Security Act prohibits an increase in the contribution and benefit base (Social Security's maximum taxable earnings), which normally increases with increases in the national average wage index. Similarly, the retirement test exempt amounts would not increase ...

The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2016 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2016. If wages increased the same as last year, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $131,500 from the current $127,200.

Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2017 11:49:00 AM

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent on July 14, down from 2.6 percent on July 11. The forecast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2017:Q2 and 1.8% for 2017:Q3.

From Merrill Lynch:

Core retail sales disappointed for a third straight month, declining 0.1% mom in June after no growth in May. Expectations were for a strong 0.3% acceleration. ... The industrial production report later in the day revealed no change in utilities production, was below our assumption and suggests weaker utilities consumption. On balance, these data sliced 0.3pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing us down to 1.9% qoq saar.

CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth will be around 2% in Q2.

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2017 11:10:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.1% annualized rate) in June. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.1% (0.9% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was unchanged (-0.3% annualized rate) in June. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (1.4% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for June here. Motor fuel declined 29% in June annualized.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.9%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.7%. Core PCE is for May and increased 1.4% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 1.1% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 0.9% annualized, and core CPI was at 1.4% annualized.

Using these measures, inflation was soft again in June.  Overall these measures are mostly below the Fed's 2% target  (Median CPI is slightly above).