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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

ATA Trucking Index increased Sharply in August

by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2016 09:46:00 AM

This was released last week by the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Jumped 5.7% in August

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 5.7% in August, following a 2.1% decline during July. In August, the index equaled 141.8 (2000=100), up from 134.2 in July. The all-time high was 144 in February.

Compared with August 2015, the SA index rose 5.9%, the largest year-over-year gain since May also 5.9%. In July, the year-over-year increase was 0.2%. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2015, tonnage was up 3.5%.
...
“Volatility continues to reign in 2016. This month’s tonnage reading highlights this fact and underscores the difficulty in determining any real or clear trend in truck tonnage,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “What is clear to me is that normal seasonal patterns are not holding in 2016.”
...
“Despite a difficult to read August, I expect the truck freight environment to be softer than normal as well as continued choppiness until the inventory correction is complete. With moderate economic growth forecasted, truck freight will improve as progress is made with the inventory overhang,” he said.
emphasis added
ATA Trucking Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is now up 5.9% year-over-year.

MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"

by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2016 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 23, 2016.

... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index remained unchanged from the previous week and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 3.66 percent from 3.70 percent, with points decreasing to 0.33 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Refinance Index Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Refinance activity has increased this year since rates have declined.


Mortgage Purchase Index The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

The purchase index was "10 percent higher than the same week one year ago".

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Lawler: Renter Share of Single-Family Market Declined Slightly in 2015

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2016 05:12:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Data from the 2015 American Community Survey suggest thatFor the first time since 2006, the number of single-family housing units occupied by renters declined slightly last year. The share of occupied single-family (detached and attached) housing units occupied by renters, which went up from 14.8% in 2006 to 18.9% in 2014, declined very slightly to 18.8% in 2015.

Occupied Single Family Detached and Attached Homes, American Community Survey
  20152014Change
Total80,881,17380,426,594454,579
Owner 65,703,47565,231,767471,708
    15-34 year olds6,165,4886,153,32812,160
    35-64 year olds39,953,12340,044,935-91,812
    65+ year olds19,584,86419,033,504551,360
Renter15,177,69815,194,827-17,129
    15-34 year olds4,676,5674,735,281-58,714
    35-64 year olds8,800,4008,819,476-19,076
    65+ year olds1,700,7311,640,07060,661
Renter Share18.8%18.9%-0.1%


Renter Share of Single-family market Click on graph for larger image.

ACS estimates suggest that the number of owner-occupied single-family homes declined by about 260,000 from 2006 to 2014, while the number of renter-occupied single-family homes increased by almost 3.9 million.

On the owner-occupied single-family front, from 2010 to 2015 the share of owned homes occupied by households 65 years or older rose from 25.5% to 29.8%.

Some analysts believe that the combination of a high renter-share and a high “old-folks” share of the single-family market is at least partly responsible for the relatively low level of single-family homes for sale.

CR Note: My view is these are two of the key reasons existing home inventory is low: 1) As Lawler notes, a large number of single family home and condos were converted to rental units. Most of these rental conversions were at the lower end, and that is limiting the supply for first time buyers. and 2) Baby boomers are aging in place (people tend to downsize when they are 75 or 80, in another 10 to 20 years for the boomers).

Chemical Activity Barometer indicated "Solid Growth in September"

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2016 03:25:00 PM

Here is an indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.

From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Continues Solid Growth in September

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), expanded 0.4 percent in September following a 0.4 percent gain in August and a 0.7 percent gain in July and June. Accounting for adjustments, the CAB is up 3.7 percent over this time last year, an improvement over prior months. All data is measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). On an unadjusted basis the CAB climbed 0.2 percent in September, following a 0.4 percent gain in August.
...
Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.
emphasis added
Chemical Activity Barometer Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production.  It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue).

Currently CAB has increased solidly over the last several months, and this suggests an increase in Industrial Production over the next year.

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2016 12:21:00 PM

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.1% year-over-year in July

The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 5%. In July, the index was up 5.1% YoY.

In the earlier post, I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $275,000 today adjusted for inflation (37%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation).

It has been almost ten years since the bubble peak.  In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the National Index was reported as being 2.2% below the bubble peak (seasonally adjusted).   However, in real terms, the National index is still about 16.6% below the bubble peak.

Nominal House Prices

Nominal House PricesThe first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA, and the CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through June) in nominal terms as reported.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to December 2005 levels, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to June 2005 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to July 2005.

Real House Prices

Real House PricesThe second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

CPI less Shelter has declined over the last two years pushing up real house prices.

In real terms, the National index is back to January 2004 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to October 2003, and the CoreLogic index back to November 2003.

In real terms, house prices are back to late 2003 levels.

Price-to-Rent

In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.

Price-to-Rent RatioHere is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.

This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to July 2003 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to April 2003 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to June 2003.

In real terms, and as a price-to-rent ratio, prices are back to late 2003  - and the price-to-rent ratio maybe moving a little more sideways now.

Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Still Soft" in September

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2016 10:16:00 AM

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Sector Activity Still Soft in September; Employment Index at 36-Month Low

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District continued to soften in September, but somewhat less so than in August, according to the Richmond Fed's latest survey. ...

Overall manufacturing activity, as measured by the composite index, gained three points but continued to indicate some contraction, with a reading of −8 following last month’s reading of −11.
...
Hiring activity at District manufacturing firms weakened in September. The manufacturing employment indicator lost 20 points to end at a reading of −7, while the average workweek index improved from a reading of −4 in August to 1 in September. The wage index lost eight points to end at a reading of 13 for the month. ...
emphasis added
This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for September.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through September), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through September) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through August (right axis).

It seems likely the ISM manufacturing index will show expansion in September.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.1% year-over-year in July

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2016 09:13:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3 month average of May, June and July prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Price Gains in July Slow According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in July, up from 5.0% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.2% annual increase, down from 4.3% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.0%, down from 5.1% in June.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.7% in July. The 10-City Composite recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.6% increase in July. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-overmonth increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease, and the 20-City Composite remains unchanged. After seasonal adjustment, 12 cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and six cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 11.1% from the peak, and down slightly in July (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 9.2% from the peak, and down slightly (SA) in July.

The National index is off 2.2% from the peak (SA), and up 0.4% (SA) in July.  The National index is up 32.1% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.2% compared to July 2015.

The Composite 20 SA is up 5.1% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 5.1% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 12 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

I'll have more later.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2016 07:14:00 PM

Monday Night from 9:00 to 10:30 PM: the First Presidential Debate at Hofstra University in New York.

From Politifact Live fact-checking the first Trump, Clinton presidential debate

From the NY Times: How The New York Times Will Fact-Check the Debate

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. Although this is the July report, it is really a 3 month average of May, June and July prices. The consensus is for a 5.2% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 5.0% year-over-year in July.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.  This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for September.

Duy on the Fed: "December Looking Good. But ..."

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2016 02:49:00 PM

From Tim Duy: December Looking Good. But ...

FOMC doves squeezed out another victory at last week’s meeting. But can they do it again in December?

As was widely expected, the Fed held rates steady at the September FOMC meeting. That said, the meeting was clearly divisive, with three dissents, all from regional bank presidents. And the accompanying statement leaned in a hawkish direction – the committee noted that near-term risks were “balanced” and that the case for a rate hike had “strengthened.” Moreover, only three of the participants did not expect a rate hike before year end.

And if that was not enough, during her press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested the bar to a December rate hike was low:
... most participants do expect that one increase in the federal funds rate will be appropriate this year and I would expect to see that if we continue on the current course of labor market improvement and there are no major new risks that develop and we simply stay on the current course.
Sounds like December is a go. But markets are not entirely convinced, with participants pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a rate hike. Perhaps this pricing reflects post-election economic risk. Or perhaps it reflects the possibility that the doves can stare down the hawks one more time before the composition of the Board changes next year.
...
Bottom Line: Doves on the Board continue to delay the preemptive strike on inflation. Stalling gains on unemployment and underemployment gave them the ammunition to stand their ground. If those gains resume, doves will fall prey to the hawks at the next meeting. But they will have an easier time maintaining a shallow path of policy next year, and hopefully are better set to communicate that path.
CR Note: A rate hike in December seems likely right now.

A few Comments on August New Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2016 11:23:00 AM

The new home sales report for August was strong at 609,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) - the highest for the month of August since 2007 - and the second highest sales rate since January 2008 (only last month was higher).  However combined sales for May, June and July were revised down slightly.

Sales were up 20.6% year-over-year (YoY) compared to August 2015. And sales are up 13.3% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2015.

This is very solid year-over-year growth. And new home sales are much more important for jobs and the economy than existing home sales. Since existing sales are existing stock, the only direct contribution to GDP is the broker's commission. There is usually some additional spending with an existing home purchase - new furniture, etc - but overall the economic impact is small compared to a new home sale.

Earlier: New Home Sales decreased to 609,000 Annual Rate in August.

New Home Sales 2015 2016Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows new home sales for 2015 and 2016 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).  Sales to date are up 13.3% year-over-year, because of very strong year-over-year growth over the last five months.

Overall  I expected lower growth this year, in the 4% to 8% range.  Slower growth seemed likely this year because Houston (and other oil producing areas) will have a problem this year.   It looks like I was too pessimistic on new home sales this year.

And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.  Now I'm looking for the gap to close over the next several years.

Distressing GapThe "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through August 2016. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship had been fairly steady back to the '60s.

Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales.

I expect existing home sales to move more sideways, and I expect this gap to slowly close, mostly from an increase in new home sales.

However, this assumes that the builders will offer some smaller, less expensive homes. If not, then the gap will persist.

Distressing GapAnother way to look at this is a ratio of existing to new home sales.

This ratio was fairly stable from 1994 through 2006, and then the flood of distressed sales kept the number of existing home sales elevated and depressed new home sales. (Note: This ratio was fairly stable back to the early '70s, but I only have annual data for the earlier years).

In general the ratio has been trending down, and this ratio will probably continue to trend down over the next several years.

Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.