by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2015 02:31:00 PM

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Remained in Positive Territory in May

Although same-stores sales and customer traffic levels softened somewhat in May, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) remained in positive territory. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 102.3 in May, down 0.4 percent from a level of 102.7 in April. Despite the decline, May represented the 27th consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

“The outlook for the restaurant industry remains positive, as the RPI stood above the 102 level for the 8th consecutive month,” said Hudson Riehle, Senior Vice President of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “A majority of restaurant operators reported higher same-store sales in May, and operators are generally optimistic about an improving business environment in the months ahead.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The index decreased to 102.3 in May, down from 102.7 in April. (above 100 indicates expansion).

Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. This is another solid reading.

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2015 11:06:00 AM

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In April 2015, the index was up 4.2% YoY.  However the YoY change has only declined slightly recently.

Here is the YoY change for the last 12 months for the National Index:

Month	YoY Change
May-14	7.1%
Jun-14	6.3%
Jul-14	5.6%
Aug-14	5.1%
Sep-14	4.8%
Oct-14	4.7%
Nov-14	4.7%
Dec-14	4.6%
Jan-15	4.4%
Feb-15	4.3%
Mar-15	4.2%
Apr-15	4.2%

As I've noted before, I think most of the slowdown on a YoY basis is now behind us (I don't expect price to go negative this year). This slowdown in price increases was expected by several key analysts, and I think it was good news for housing and the economy.

In the earlier post, I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $274,000 today adjusted for inflation (37%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation).

It has been almost ten years since the bubble peak.  In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the National Index was reported as being 7.6% below the bubble peak.   However, in real terms, the National index is still about 21% below the bubble peak.

Nominal House Prices

The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA, and the CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through March) in nominal terms as reported.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to June 2005 levels, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to February 2005 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to April 2005.

Real House Prices

The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

In real terms, the National index is back to June 2003 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to May 2003, and the CoreLogic index back to October 2003.

In real terms, house prices are back to 2003 levels.

Note: CPI less Shelter is down 1.6% year-over-year, so this is pushing up real prices.

Price-to-Rent

In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.

Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.

This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to March 2003 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to March 2003 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to August 2003.

In real terms, and as a price-to-rent ratio, prices are mostly back to 2003 levels - and the price-to-rent ratio maybe moving a little sideways now.

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2015 09:16:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3 month average of February, March and April prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Price Gains Ease in April According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Both Composites and the National index showed slightly lower year-over-year gains compared to last month. The 10-City Composite gained 4.6% year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.2% annual gain in April 2015 versus a 4.3% increase in March 2015.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National index increased 1.1% in April and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 1.0% and 1.1% month-over-month. After seasonal adjustment, the National index was unchanged; the 10- and 20-city composites were up 0.3% and 0.4%. All 20 cities reported increases in April before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, 12 were up and eight were down.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 14.1% from the peak, and up 0.4% in April (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 12.9% from the peak, and up 0.3% (SA) in April.

The National index is off 7.6% from the peak, and unchanged (SA) in April.  The National index is up 24.8% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.6% compared to April 2014.

The Composite 20 SA is up 4.9% year-over-year..

The National index SA is up 4.2% year-over-year.

Prices increased (SA) in 12 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in April seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 20 of the 20 cities NSA)  Prices in Las Vegas are off 40.1% from the peak, and prices in Denver are at a new high (SA).

The last graph shows the bubble peak, the post bubble minimum, and current nominal prices relative to January 2000 prices for all the Case-Shiller cities in nominal terms.

As an example, at the peak, prices in Phoenix were 127% above the January 2000 level. Then prices in Phoenix fell slightly below the January 2000 level, and are now up 51% above January 2000 (51% nominal gain in 15 years).

These are nominal prices, and real prices (adjusted for inflation) are up about 40% since January 2000 - so the increase in Phoenix from January 2000 until now is about 11% above the change in overall prices due to inflation.

Two cities - Denver (up 65% since Jan 2000) and Dallas (up 48% since Jan 2000) - are above the bubble highs (a few other Case-Shiller Comp 20 city are close - Boston, Charlotte, San Francisco, Portland).    Detroit prices are barely above the January 2000 level.

This was close to the consensus forecast. I'll have more on house prices later.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 07:07:00 PM

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. Although this is the April report, it is really a 3 month average of February, March and April prices. The consensus is for a 5.4% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.0% year-over-year in April, and for prices to be unchanged month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, up from 46.2 in May.

From Tim Duy: Events Continue to Conspire Against the Fed. Excerpts:

Federal Reserve policymakers just can't catch a break lately. Riding on the back of strong data in the second half of last year, they were positioning themselves to declare victory and begin the process of policy normalization, AKA "raising interest rates." Then the bottom fell out. Data in the first half of the year turned sloppy. Although policymakers on average - and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in particular - could reasonably believe the underlying momentum of the economy had not changed, that the data reflected largely temporary factors, the case for a rate hike by mid-year evaporated all the same. The risk of being wrong was simply more than they were willing to bear in the absence of clear inflation pressures.

The story was clearly shifting by the end of June. Key data on jobs and the consumer firmed as expected, raising the possibility that September was in play. ...

But then came Greece. Greece - will it never end? Financial markets were roiled as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras abandoned the latest round of bailout negotiations with the EU, IMF, and ECB and instead pursued a national referendum on the last version of the bailout proposal. Most of you know the story from that point on - run on Greek banks, the ECB ends further ELA extensions, a bank holiday is declared, likely missing a payment to the IMF etc., etc.

At this juncture, everything in Greece is now in flux. ...

Bottom Line: The Fed was already approaching the first rate hike cautiously, wary of even dipping their toes in the water. The crisis in Greece will make them even more cautious. Like their response to the first quarter data, until they see a clear path, they will be on the sidelines. That said, given the plethora of warnings not to underestimate the global impact of the crisis in Greece, one should be watching the opposite side of the story. Solid data and limited Greece impact would leave December at a minimum, and even September, in play.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 05:24:00 PM

Nothing to add on Greece right now, so here is another forecast for June auto sales.

From WardsAuto: Forecast: SAAR Expected to Remain Above 17 Million in June

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.48 million light vehicles this month.
...
The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 17.2 million units, shy of last month’s 17.7 million SAAR, but ahead of the current 3-month SAAR (17.1 million) and the year-to-date SAAR through May (16.8 million).

The forecast reflects reports of very strong retail activity for most automakers continuing from May offset somewhat by a downturn in sales to fleets.
...
Projected June LV sales would bring year-to-date deliveries to 8.5 million units, a 4.6% improvement from same-period 2014. WardsAuto currently is forecasting 16.94 million LV deliveries for calendar 2015.

Another strong month, and on pace for close to 17 million for the year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 02:21:00 PM

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From Black Knight: April Transactions U.S. Home Prices Up 1.0 Percent for the Month; Up 4.9 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: BKFS) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI​) report, based on April 2015 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

For a more in-depth review of this month’s home price trends, including detailed looks at the 20 largest states and 40 largest metros, please download the full Black Knight HPI Report.

The Black Knight HPI increased 1.0% percent in April, and is off 7.6% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).

The year-over-year increase in the index has been about the same for the last seven months.

The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.

Black Knight shows prices off 39.5% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 33.4% in Orlando, and 29.1% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado, New York, Tennessee and Texas, and several other cities around the country.

Note: Case-Shiller for April will be released tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 10:44:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Still Contracting

Texas factory activity declined again in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose to -6.5 but remained in negative territory, suggesting a fourth consecutive month of contracting output.
...
Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened further, although not as sharply in June as in prior months. The general business activity index jumped nearly 14 points to -7, its highest reading since January.
...
Labor market indicators reflected slight employment declines and shorter workweeks. The June employment index was negative for a second month in a row but pushed up 7 points to -1.2. Fourteen percent of firms reported net hiring, compared with 15 percent reporting net layoffs. The hours worked index inched up from -11.6 to -10.7.
emphasis added

This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for June. Three of the five surveys indicated contraction in June, mostly due to weakness in oil producing areas. However there was less contraction in those areas in June.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through June), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through June) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through May (right axis).

It seems likely the ISM index will be weak again in June, but will probably increase from the May level. The consensus is for an increase to 53.2 for the ISM index, from 52.8 in May.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 10:08:00 AM

From CNBC: Pending home sales rise 0.9% in May, highest level since 2006

Signed contracts to buy existing homes, so-called pending home sales, rose just 0.9 percent in May from April, according to the National Association of Realtors, after a downward revision to April's reading. That is slightly lower than analysts predicted, but is still the highest level on the association's index since April of 2006. Pending sales are now 10.4 percent higher than one year ago.

This was close to expectations of a 0.6% increase.

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in June and July.

by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2015 09:15:00 PM

From the NY Times: Puerto Rico’s Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’

Puerto Rico’s governor, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion in debts, an admission that will probably have wide-reaching financial repercussions.

And from the WSJ: Greece Orders Banks Closed, Imposes Capital Controls to Stem Deposit Flight

Greece shut down its banking system, ordering lenders to stay closed for six days starting Monday, and its central bank moved to impose controls to prevent money from flooding out of the country.

I hope Greece is ready with the Drachma (It seemed there was no way out four months ago).

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for June.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 28, 2015

• June 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 309 Institutions, Q2 2015 Transition Matrix

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 29 and DOW futures are down 217 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $58.80 per barrel and Brent at $62.55 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $106, and Brent was at $112 - so prices are down 40%+ year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.78 per gallon (down about $0.90 per gallon from a year ago).

by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2015 11:00:00 AM

Some comments from analysts at the Financial Times Alphaville: Greece: bank analysts and eurowatchers on what to expect on Monday

The analysts make good point on Greek banks, and also on the odds of the Greeks voting for more austerity, an excerpt:

"according to recent polls there may be a majority in the Greek population supporting the creditor-proposed package. Hence if the vote was a ‘yes’ then the creditor side will likely work hard at keeping Greece within the Eurozone. We may thus not see full-blown risk off sentiment tomorrow as there is still a fair chance of Grexit being avoided in the end."

However no analyst mentions that the austerity program failed miserably (see: Did Germany Fulfill their Promises? Did Austerity in Greece Deliver?). The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing (austerity) and expecting different results.  More austerity means more depression.  Europe has been Schauble'd!

And from the WSJ: ECB to Keep Level of Emergency Loans for Greek Banks Unchanged

The European Central Bank said Sunday it will freeze for now the level of emergency loans for Greek banks at Friday’s level, a step that could push the country closer to having to impose capital controls to halt a deposit flight that appeared to have accelerated over the weekend.

And from the NY Times: European Central Bank Limits Aid to Greek Banks Amid Debt Crisis