by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2015 11:47:00 AM

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate declined in Q1 2015 to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in Q4 2014, and the same as in Q1 2014. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009.

A few comments from Reis Senior Economist and Director of Research Ryan Severino:

The apartment market pulled a bit of a surprise during the first quarter of 2015. After appearing to reach an inflection point last year, beyond which the national vacancy rate would continue rising, vacancy actually declined by 10 basis points to 4.1%. This decrease in vacancy was primarily due to relatively weak new completions during the first quarter. Although weak first quarters for completions has become a bit of a norm in recent years as seasonality has returned to the market, it is a bit surprising this year because of the large pipeline of projects slated to come online in 2015, including many new units that were supposed to be completed last year but were delayed until this year. On the other side of the ledger, demand remains relatively robust as we projected it would.
...
The 4.1% vacancy rate matches the cyclical low that was attained during the first half of 2014. The decline was predominantly due to relatively weak supply growth during the quarter – although demand exceeded supply, net absorption was also relatively weak during the quarter as is usually wont to happen during the first quarter of calendar years. Despite this quarter’s decline, over the last twelve months the national vacancy rate was unchanged, indicating that the national vacancy rate has likely bottomed and should rise during the balance of 2015. The massive amounts of new supply that are coming online over the next few years should exceed demand which will gradually push the vacancy rate upward. However, due to the large number of individuals between the ages of 20 and 29 in the US, demand will remain relatively stout which will cause vacancy to rise at a somewhat measured pace.

Asking and effective rents both grew by 0.6% during the first quarter. This also follows the slowing trend of the last few quarters, but seasonality was likely a factor in this lack of acceleration versus the fourth quarter of 2014. The deceleration in rent growth in recent quarters has caused even the year-over-year growth rate to decline. Over the last four quarters, rent growth for asking and effective rents was 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Reis is just for large cities.


Apartment vacancy data courtesy of Reis.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2015 08:54:00 AM

The Department of Commerce reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $35.4 billion in February, down $7.2 billion from $42.7 billion in January, revised. February exports were $186.2 billion, $3.0 billion less than January exports. February imports were $221.7 billion, $10.2 billion less than January imports.

The trade deficit smaller than the consensus forecast of $41.5 billion.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through February 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

Imports and exports decreased in February (probably due to impact of West Coast port slowdown).

Exports are 12% above the pre-recession peak and down 1% compared to February 2014; imports are 4% below the pre-recession peak, and down 4% compared to February 2014. 

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil imports averaged $49.53 in February, down from $58.96 in January, and down from $91.53 in February 2014.  The petroleum deficit has generally been declining and is the major reason the overall deficit has declined since early 2012.

Oil prices will probably increase a little in the March report.  Note: There is a lag due to shipping and long term contracts.

The trade deficit with China increased to $22.5 billion in February, from $20.8 billion in February 2014.  The deficit with China is a large portion of the overall deficit.

The decrease in the trade deficit was due to a lower volume and lower price of oil imports, and the West Coast port slowdown.  Oil prices will probably be a little higher in March, and trade will be up sharply at the West Coast ports.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2015 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 268,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 282,000 to 288,000. The 4-week moving average was 285,500, a decrease of 14,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,250 from 297,000 to 300,250.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The previous week was revised up to 288,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 285,500.

This was below the consensus forecast of 285,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2015 08:09:00 PM

Update to "It never rains in California" ... from the Sacramento Bee: Jerry Brown orders mandatory water reductions amid California drought

With California slogging into its fourth year of withering drought, Gov. Jerry Brown on Wednesday ordered mandatory water reductions of 25 percent in cities and towns across the state.
...
The snowpack, which typically accounts for about 30 percent of California’s water supply, has been declining since the first manual survey of the season, in December. According to the most recent electronic readings, it now stands at its lowest level in recorded history, just 8 percent of average.

Thursday:
• 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 285 thousand from 282 thousand.

• At 8:30 AM, the Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $41.5 billion in February from $41.8 billion in January.

• Early: Reis Q1 2015 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for February. The consensus is for no change in February orders.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2015 02:57:00 PM

Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 17.05 million SAAR in March. That is up 3.8% from March 2014, and up 5.5% from the 16.2 million annual sales rate last month.

From John Sousanis at Wards Auto: March 2015 U.S. LV Sales Thread: Spring Sales Lift SAAR Past 17 Million

U.S. automakers sold 1, 537,820 light vehicles in March, as several automakers posted record sales and European luxury brands largely outperformed expectations.

The results reflected a 4.4% gain in the daily sales rate compared with same-month year-ago, and pushed the industry's light-vehicle SAAR past the 17-million mark for the first time since November.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for March (red, light vehicle sales of 17.05 million SAAR from WardsAuto).

This was above the consensus forecast of 16.8 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This was the first time above 17 million SAAR since last November.  A solid month.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2015 12:35:00 PM

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in February:

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during February 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $967.2 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised January estimate of $967.9 billion. The February figure is 2.1 percent above the February 2014 estimate of $947.1 billion.

Private spending increased and public spending decreased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $698.2 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised January estimate of $696.9 billion. ...

In February, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $268.9 billion, 0.8 percent below the revised January estimate of $271.0 billion.
emphasis added

Note: Non-residential for offices and hotels is generally increasing, but spending for oil and gas is generally declining. Early in the recovery, there was a surge in non-residential spending for oil and gas (because prices increased), but now, with falling prices, oil and gas is a drag on overall construction spending.

As an example, construction spending for lodging is up 10% year-over-year, whereas spending for power (includes oil and gas) construction peaked in mid-2014 and is down 17% year-over-year.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential spending dipped a little last year, but is increasing again.

Non-residential spending is 16% below the peak in January 2008.

Public construction spending is now 17% below the peak in March 2009 and about 3% above the post-recession low.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 2%. Non-residential spending is up 6% year-over-year. Public spending is up 3% year-over-year.

Looking forward, all categories of construction spending should increase in 2015. Residential spending is still very low, non-residential is starting to pickup (except oil and gas), and public spending has probably hit bottom after several years of austerity.

This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.2% increase, and spending for January was revised down (December was revised up).

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2015 10:04:00 AM

The ISM manufacturing index suggests slower expansion in March than in February. The PMI was at 51.5% in March, down from 52.9% in February. The employment index was at 50.0%, down from 51.4% in February, and the new orders index was at 51.8%, down from 52.5%.

From the Institute for Supply Management: March 2015 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the 27th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 70th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The March PMI® registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from February’s reading of 52.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.8 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the reading of 52.5 percent in February. The Production Index registered 53.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point above the February reading of 53.7 percent. The Employment Index registered 50 percent, 1.4 percentage points below the February reading of 51.4 percent, reflecting unchanged employment levels from February. Inventories of raw materials registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the February reading of 52.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 39 percent, 4 percentage points above the February reading of 35 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the fifth consecutive month. Comments from the panel refer to continuing challenges from the West Coast port issue, lower oil prices having both positive and negative impacts depending upon the industry, residual effects of the harsh winter, higher costs of healthcare premiums, and challenges associated with the stronger dollar on international business."
emphasis added

On that last sentence - the good news is the West Cost port slowdown has been resolved, although it will take a few months to catch up.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

This was below expectations of 52.5%, but still indicates expansion in March.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2015 08:59:00 AM

Reis released their Q1 2015 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate declined in Q1 to 16.6% from 16.7% in Q4 2014. This is down from 16.9% in Q1 2014, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.

From Reis:

The national vacancy rate declined by 10 basis points during the quarter to 16.6%, its lowest level since the third quarter of 2009. Although the vacancy decline was just 10 basis points, this is the third consecutive quarter with a vacancy decline, another sign of more consistent improvement from the office market.
...
With net absorption continuing to outpace construction by a wide enough margin, vacancy rate declines are now becoming more consistent, emblematic of a strengthening office market. As office leases that were signed at the bottom of the market expire over the next couple of years, many tenants will find their current space insufficient and will sign larger leases.
...
Asking and effective rents grew by 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively, during the first quarter, marking the eighteenth consecutive quarter of asking and effective rent growth. Superficially, this is a slight decrease from last quarter when both metrics increased by 1.1%. However, this is still strong performance from a market still grappling with a high vacancy rate.
...
[W]e continue to expect that the national vacancy rate will fall by roughly 50 basis points in 2015 while effective rents grow by approximately 3.6%. That would be a solid showing for an office market that is still in recovery mode.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual).

Reis reported the vacancy rate was at 16.6% in Q1.

Net absorption is picking up, but there will not be a significant pickup in new construction until the vacancy rate falls much further.

Office vacancy data courtesy of Reis.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2015 08:21:00 AM

From ADP:

Private sector employment increased by 189,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
...
Goods-producing employment rose by only 5,000 jobs in March, down from 22,000 jobs gained in February. The construction industry added 17,000 jobs, down from 28,000 last month. Meanwhile, manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs in March, after adding 2,000 in February.

Service-providing employment rose by 184,000 jobs in March, down from 192,000 in February. ...

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth took a step back in March. The fallout from the collapse in oil prices and surge in value of the dollar is hitting the job market. Despite the slowdown, underlying job growth remains strong enough to reduce labor market slack.”

This was below the consensus forecast for 225,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report. 

The BLS report for March will be released on Friday and the consensus is for 247,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2015 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 27, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. ... The unadjusted Purchase Index ... was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“There was a broad based increase in mortgage applications last week relative to the week prior. The increase in purchase volume was led by a nearly 6 percent increase in both conventional and government markets, perhaps signaling that households are finally ready to begin the home-buying season,” said Lynn Fisher, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 3.89 percent from 3.90 percent, with points decreasing to 0.36 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000.

2015 will probably see a little more refinance activity than in 2014, but not a large refinance boom.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is 8% higher than a year ago.