by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2015 08:21:00 AM

From ADP:

Private sector employment increased by 189,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
...
Goods-producing employment rose by only 5,000 jobs in March, down from 22,000 jobs gained in February. The construction industry added 17,000 jobs, down from 28,000 last month. Meanwhile, manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs in March, after adding 2,000 in February.

Service-providing employment rose by 184,000 jobs in March, down from 192,000 in February. ...

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth took a step back in March. The fallout from the collapse in oil prices and surge in value of the dollar is hitting the job market. Despite the slowdown, underlying job growth remains strong enough to reduce labor market slack.”

This was below the consensus forecast for 225,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report. 

The BLS report for March will be released on Friday and the consensus is for 247,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2015 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 27, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. ... The unadjusted Purchase Index ... was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“There was a broad based increase in mortgage applications last week relative to the week prior. The increase in purchase volume was led by a nearly 6 percent increase in both conventional and government markets, perhaps signaling that households are finally ready to begin the home-buying season,” said Lynn Fisher, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 3.89 percent from 3.90 percent, with points decreasing to 0.36 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000.

2015 will probably see a little more refinance activity than in 2014, but not a large refinance boom.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is 8% higher than a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2015 07:17:00 PM

Wednesday:
• 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 225,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 212,000 in February.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for a decrease to 52.5 from 52.9 in February. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in February at 52.9%. The employment index was at 51.4%, and the new orders index was at 52.5%.

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

• Early: Reis Q1 2015 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 16.8 million SAAR in March from 16.2 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2015 04:36:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in February to 1.83% from 1.86% in January. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.27% in February 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Last week, Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate was declined in February to 1.81%. Freddie's rate is down from 2.29% in February 2014, and is at the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Click on graph for larger image

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.44 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will be close to 1% in late 2016.

The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe serious delinquencies will be close to normal at the end of 2016.  This elevated delinquency rate is mostly related to older loans - the lenders are still working through the backlog, especially in judicial foreclosure states like Florida.

by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2015 02:18:00 PM

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Softer sales offset by stronger optimism in February's RPI

Despite dampened sales and customer traffic levels as a result of extreme weather in parts of the country, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) held relatively steady in February. The RPI stood at 102.6 in February, down slightly from a level of 102.7 in January.

In addition, February marked the 24th consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

“With same-store sales and customer traffic levels being impacted by challenging weather conditions in parts of the country, the Current Situation component of the RPI declined in February,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “However, this was offset by a solid improvement in the Expectations component of the index, as restaurant operators are increasingly optimistic about business conditions in the months ahead. As a result, the overall RPI held relatively steady in February.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The index decreased to 102.6 in February, down from 102.7 in January. (above 100 indicates expansion).

Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. This is another solid reading - and it is likely restaurants are benefiting from lower gasoline prices and are having to raise wages - a little - to attract and retain workers.