RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 3/29/2014 08:52:00 AM
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Schedule for Week of March 30th
This will be a busy week for economic data with several key reports including the March employment report on Friday.
Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, February vehicle sales on Tuesday, the ISM service index on Thursday, and the February trade deficit report on Thursday.
Also, Reis is scheduled to release their Q1 surveys of rents and vacancy rates for apartments, offices and malls.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a decrease to 58.5, down from 59.8 in February.
9:55 AM: Speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Strengthening Communities, At the 2014 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference, Chicago, Ill.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for March. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for March.
Early: Reis Q1 2014 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
All day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 15.8 million SAAR in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 15.3 million SAAR in February.This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.
9:00 AM ET: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index for March.
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for an increase to 54.0 from 53.2 in February.Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in February at 53.2%. The employment index was at 52.3%, and the new orders index was at 54.5%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending.
Early: Reis Q1 2014 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 190,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 139,000 in February.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for February. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in February orders.
Early: Reis Q1 2014 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 320 thousand from 311 thousand.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. Imports and exports increased in January.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to decrease to $38.5 billion in February from $39.1 billion in January.
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 53.5, up from 51.6 in February. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 206,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March, up from the 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 6.6% in March.
This graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through February.The economy has added 8.7 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (8.0 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).
There are still almost 129 thousand fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007. Private sector employment at a new high will probably be a headline for the March report.
Friday, March 28, 2014
Headline for Next Friday: "U.S. Private Employment at All Time High"
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2014 07:13:00 PM
Just a quick note, private U.S. employment is currently 129 thousand below the pre-recession peak. With the release of the March employment report next Friday, private employment will probably be at an all time high.
However total employment is still 666 thousand below the pre-recession peak due to all the government layoffs. Total employment will probably be at a new high sometime this summer.
I guess I'm going to have to retire the following graph soon ... (once call the "THE SCARIEST JOBS CHART EVER").
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through February.
This is total non-farm payrolls, so I'll be posting this for a few more months.
Of course this doesn't include growth of the labor force ...
Housing: The increase in inventory in the West
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2014 03:36:00 PM
Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has inventory for a number of cities. Right now we are seeing inventories up sharply year-over-year in several cities in the West.
Note: Housing Tracker is reporting total inventory is up slightly year-over-year in Las Vegas. However, non-contingent inventory has doubled year-over-year according to GLVAR. Contingent inventory includes short sales that make remain contingent for a significant period awaiting lender approval.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in several cities in the West.
Inventory is up 88% in Sacramento, up 57% in Phoenix, up 40% in Riverside, and up 33% in Orange County.
However inventory is only up 3% in San Francisco and 9% in San Diego (Las Vegas total inventory is up 3%, but non-contingent inventory has doubled).
With more inventory, price increases should slow.
BLS: State unemployment rates were "little changed" in February
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2014 10:55:00 AM
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary
Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in February. Twenty-nine states had unemployment rate decreases from January, 10 states had increases, and 11 states and the District of Columbia had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Rhode Island continued to have the highest unemployment rate among the states in February, 9.0 percent. North Dakota again had the lowest jobless rate, 2.6 percent.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are well below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession.
The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement - Michigan, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida have seen the largest declines and many other states have seen significant declines.
The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. No state has double digit unemployment and the unemployment rate is at 9% in only one state: Rhode Island. Illinois is at 8.7%, Nevada at 8.5%, and California at 8.0%.
The second graph shows the number of states with unemployment rates above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment recession, there were 10 states with an unemployment rate above 11% (red).Currently one state has an unemployment rate at or above 9% (purple), four states at or above 8% (light blue), and 13 states at or above 7% (blue).
Final March Consumer Sentiment at 80.0
by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2014 09:55:00 AM
Click on graph for larger image.
The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March decreased to 80.0 from the February reading of 81.6, and was up slightly from the preliminary March reading of 79.9.
This was below the consensus forecast of 80.5. Sentiment has generally been improving following the recession - with plenty of ups and downs - and a big spike down when Congress threatened to "not pay the bills" in 2011, and another smaller spike down last October and November due to the government shutdown.
I expect to see sentiment at post-recession highs very soon.
