RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2010 12:58:00 PM
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses several measures to determine if the economy is in recession. From the most recent NBER memo:
Because a recession is a broad contraction of the economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee believes that domestic production and employment are the primary conceptual measures of economic activity.
The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. ...
The committee believes that the two most reliable comprehensive estimates of aggregate domestic production are normally the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Product and the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Income, both produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ...
General Motors: February Sales increase 12% compared to Feb 2009
by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2010 10:36:00 AM
From CNBC: GM's US Auto Sales Rise 11.5 Percent in February
General Motors says its February sales rose 11.5 percent compared with the same month last year ...This is based on a very easy comparison; in February 2009 U.S. light vehicle sales fell sharply to 9.143 million (SAAR) following the financial crisis and reports of the then impending bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler. February 2009 was the bottom for auto sales.
I'll add reports from the other major auto companies as updates to this post. Toyota will be especially interesting because of the quality issues.
FHFA Extends Refinance Program
by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2010 08:41:00 AM
Just something I forgot to mention yesterday ...
Press Release: FHFA Extends Refinance Program By One Year
Federal Housing Finance Agency Acting Director Ed DeMarco today announced the extension of the Home Affordable Refinance Program, (HARP), a refinancing program administered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to June 30, 2011. ... The HARP program expands access to refinancing for qualified individuals and families whose homes have lost value. The program was set to expire on June 10 of this year.
Monday, March 01, 2010
Summers: Blame it on the Snow
by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 09:40:00 PM
Larry Summers on CNBC: "Very important to look past the next [employment] figures." (27 second long after ad)
Reports: Senate nears agreement on consumer financial protection
by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 07:32:00 PM
Binyamin Appelbaum, at the WaPo, reports that Senators Dodd and Corker (Tenn) are nearing a deal to give authority for financial consumer protection to the Federal Reserve.
Uh, wasn't the Fed already responsible for consumer financial protection?
Fannie, Freddie and FHA REO Inventory
by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 04:02:00 PM
REO: Real Estate Owned.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
This graph (ht Tom Lawler) shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and FHA through Q4 2009.
Even with all the delays in foreclosure, the REO inventory has increased sharply over the last two quarters, from 135,868 at the end of Q2 2009, to 153,007 in Q3 2009, and 172,357 at the end of Q4 2009.
ISM and Manufacturing Employment
by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 01:53:00 PM
The ISM report provides some hints for the BLS report later this week, but it is important to remember that manufacturing employment is a small percentage of the overall work force.
From the ISM Manufacturing report on employment:
ISM's Employment Index registered 56.1 percent in February, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 53.3 percent reported in January. This is the third month of growth in manufacturing employment, and the highest reading since January 2005 (58.7 percent). An Employment Index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.The following graph shows the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index vs. the BLS reported monthly change in manufacturing employment (as a percent of manufacturing employment).
The graph includes data from 1948 through 2009. The earlier period (1948 - 1988) is in red, and the last 20 years is in blue.
Construction Spending Declines in January
by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 10:30:00 AM
Private residential construction spending was up slightly in January, but is mostly moving sideways. I expect some growth in residential spending in 2010, but the increases will probably be sluggish until the large overhang of existing inventory is reduced.
Non-residential spending decreased in January, and is now at the lowest level since November 2006. The collapse in non-residential construction spending continues ... 
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
The first graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.
Residential construction spending increased slighltly in January, and nonresidential spending declined.
ISM Manufacturing Index Shows Expansion in February
by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 10:00:00 AM
PMI at 56.5% in February. Down from 58.4% in January, and up from 54.9% in December.
From the Institute for Supply Management: February 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the seventh consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 10th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the seventh consecutive month during February. While new orders and production were not as strong as they were in January, they still show significant month-over-month growth. Additionally, the Employment Index is very encouraging, as it is up 2.8 percentage points for the month to 56.1 percent. This is the third consecutive month of growth in the Employment Index. With these levels of activity, manufacturers are seemingly willing to hire where they have orders to support higher employment."
January Personal Income Flat, Spending Increases
by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 08:30:00 AM
From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, January 2010
Personal income increased $11.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $47.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $52.4 billion, or 0.5 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in December.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $367.2 billion in January, compared with $467.9 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.3 percent in January, compared with 4.2 percent in December.
