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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"18261"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7032947724426748784"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-14T13:15:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-14T13:15:00.044-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of February 15, 2015"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key economic report this week is January housing starts on Wednesday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor manufacturing, the January Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the February NY Fed (Empire State), and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor prices, PPI will be released on Wednesday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, February 16th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAll US markets are closed in observance of the \u003Cb\u003EPresidents' Day\u003C\/b\u003E holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, February 17th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: NY Fed \u003Cb\u003EEmpire State Manufacturing Survey\u003C\/b\u003E for February. The consensus is for a reading of 9.0, down from 10.0 last month (above zero is expansion).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: The February \u003Cb\u003ENAHB homebuilder survey\u003C\/b\u003E. The consensus is for a reading of 58, up from 57 in January.\u0026nbsp; Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, February 18th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-0kkME86BGHc\/VL-qoysEIbI\/AAAAAAAAiBY\/Gmviw7vudP0\/s1600\/StartsDec2014.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-0kkME86BGHc\/VL-qoysEIbI\/AAAAAAAAiBY\/Gmviw7vudP0\/s320\/StartsDec2014.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts\u003C\/b\u003E for January. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal housing starts were at 1.089 million (SAAR) in December.  Single family starts were at 679 thousand SAAR in December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 1.070 million (SAAR) in January.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for January\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-QXuiK5jX2yg\/VLkexKAMZwI\/AAAAAAAAh_A\/6nnNFFNtE6w\/s1600\/IPDec2014.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-QXuiK5jX2yg\/VLkexKAMZwI\/AAAAAAAAh_A\/6nnNFFNtE6w\/s320\/IPDec2014.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E 9:15 AM: The Fed will release \u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/b\u003E for January.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows industrial production since 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.9%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDuring the day: The AIA's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for January (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Minutes\u003C\/b\u003E for Meeting of January 27-28, 2015\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, February 19th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.  The consensus is for claims to decrease to 290 thousand from 304 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for February. The consensus is for a reading of 8.5, up from 6.3 last month (above zero indicates expansion).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, February 20th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENo economic releases scheduled."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7032947724426748784\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7032947724426748784","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7032947724426748784"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7032947724426748784"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/schedule-for-week-of-february-15-2015.html","title":"Schedule for Week of February 15, 2015"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-0kkME86BGHc\/VL-qoysEIbI\/AAAAAAAAiBY\/Gmviw7vudP0\/s72-c\/StartsDec2014.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2143481460741483440"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-14T08:07:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-14T08:07:00.227-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 386 Institutions"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"This is an \u003Ci\u003Eunofficial\u003C\/i\u003E list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/cr4re.com\/PBL02142015.html\"\u003Eunofficial problem bank list\u003C\/a\u003E for Feb 14, 2015. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EChanges and comments from surferdude808: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EA failure today reduced the Unofficial Problem Bank List to 386 institutions with assets of $121.2 billion.  A year ago, the list held 586 institutions with assets of $195 billion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe FDIC shuttered the doors of Capitol City Bank \u0026amp; Trust Company, Atlanta, GA ($276 million) making it the 89th bank headquartered in Georgia to fail since the on-set of the Great Recession.  Astonishingly, the FDIC estimates the failure cost at $88.9 million or nearly 33 percent of the bank's assets. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHistorically, commercial bank failure are usually around 12¢ on the dollar.  Even with a well above average cost percentage, Capitol City Bank \u0026amp; Trust only ranks as the 54th most expensive failure, in cost percentage terms, of the 89 Georgia closures.  Moreover, its cost is under the Georgia average failure cost of 34.7 percent of failed bank assets.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext week, we anticipate the OCC will release an update on its latest enforcement action activities..\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2143481460741483440\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2143481460741483440","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2143481460741483440"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2143481460741483440"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/unofficial-problem-bank-list-declines_14.html","title":"Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 386 Institutions"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1762713263634756495"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-13T18:55:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-13T18:55:10.846-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Bank Failure #3 in 2015: Capitol City Bank \u0026 Trust Company, Atlanta, Georgia"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Another bank failure in Georgia ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the FDIC: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.fdic.gov\/news\/news\/press\/2015\/pr15016.html\"\u003EFirst-Citizens Bank \u0026amp; Trust Company, Raleigh, North Carolina, Assumes All of the Deposits of Capitol City Bank \u0026amp; Trust Company, Atlanta, Georgia\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAs of December 31, 2014, Capitol City Bank \u0026amp; Trust Company had approximately $272.3 million in total assets and $262.7 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $88.9 million. ... Capitol City Bank \u0026amp; Trust Company is the third FDIC-insured institution in the nation to fail this year, and the first in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Eastside Commercial Bank, Conyers, on July 18, 2014.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAt least we know it is Friday."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1762713263634756495\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1762713263634756495","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1762713263634756495"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1762713263634756495"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/bank-failure-3-in-2015-capitol-city.html","title":"Bank Failure #3 in 2015: Capitol City Bank \u0026 Trust Company, Atlanta, Georgia"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8227931781141262198"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-13T14:34:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-13T14:34:39.183-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"By Request: Repeat U.S. Population by Age and Distribution, 1900 through 2060"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Repeat: Here are animations of the U.S population by age and distribution, from 1900 through 2060.  The population data and estimates are from the Census Bureau (actual through 2010 and projections through 2060). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlso - by request - I've slowed the animation down to 2 seconds per slide (and included a slower distribution animation below).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: For distribution, here are \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2013\/09\/population-distribution-1900-2060.html\"\u003Ethe same graphs using a slider\u003C\/a\u003E (the user can look at individual slides).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere are many interesting points - the Depression baby bust, the baby boom, the 2nd smaller baby bust following the baby boom, the \"echo\" boom\" and more.  What jumps out at me\u0026nbsp;are the improvements in health care.  And also that the largest cohorts will all soon be under 40.   Heck, in the last frame (2060), any remaining Boomers will be in those small (but growing) 95 to 99, and 100+ cohorts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnimation updates every two seconds. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENotes: \u003Cb\u003EPopulation is in thousands (not labeled)\u003C\/b\u003E!  Prior to 1940, the oldest group in the Census data was \"75+\".\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;From 1940 through 1985, the oldest group was \"85+\".\u0026nbsp; Starting in 1990, the oldest group is 100+.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Population 1990 through 2060\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/cr4re.com\/images\/PoPAge2.gif\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph is by distribution (updates every 2 seconds).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Population Distribution 1990 through 2060\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/cr4re.com\/images\/Pop19002second.gif\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8227931781141262198\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8227931781141262198","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8227931781141262198"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8227931781141262198"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/by-request-repeat-us-population-by-age.html","title":"By Request: Repeat U.S. Population by Age and Distribution, 1900 through 2060"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1792016581075565876"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-13T11:14:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-13T11:14:48.389-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Energy expenditures as a percentage of consumer spending"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here is a graph of expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures through December 2014.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is one of the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2010\/07\/modest_relief_o\"\u003Emeasures\u003C\/a\u003E that Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser looks at to evaluate any drag on GDP from energy prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-3Sdod_bXbiY\/VN4iLUYRw5I\/AAAAAAAAiSo\/IJDAJYnMY8g\/s1600\/EnergyPCEDec2014.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Energy Expenditures as Percent of GDP\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-3Sdod_bXbiY\/VN4iLUYRw5I\/AAAAAAAAiSo\/IJDAJYnMY8g\/s320\/EnergyPCEDec2014.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: center; margin: 10px;\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EData source: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bea.gov\/national\/nipaweb\/nipa_underlying\/SelectTable.asp\"\u003EBEA Table 2.3.5U\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious.  As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith the recent decline in energy prices, this ratio has declined sharply. \u0026nbsp;Hopefully energy prices are resuming their long term down trend as a percent of PCE."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1792016581075565876\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1792016581075565876","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1792016581075565876"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1792016581075565876"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/energy-expenditures-as-percentage-of.html","title":"Energy expenditures as a percentage of consumer spending"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-3Sdod_bXbiY\/VN4iLUYRw5I\/AAAAAAAAiSo\/IJDAJYnMY8g\/s72-c\/EnergyPCEDec2014.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5382946891819256404"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-13T10:04:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-13T10:04:10.162-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Preliminary February Consumer Sentiment decreases to 93.6"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-7kN07S2slhM\/VN4R-s_WlJI\/AAAAAAAAiSY\/vobVsvvFsjM\/s1600\/ConSentFebPre2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Consumer Sentiment\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-7kN07S2slhM\/VN4R-s_WlJI\/AAAAAAAAiSY\/vobVsvvFsjM\/s320\/ConSentFebPre2015.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February was at 93.6, down from 98.1 in January.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was below the consensus forecast of 98.5.  Somewhat higher gasoline prices are probably the reason for the decline in February."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5382946891819256404\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5382946891819256404","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5382946891819256404"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5382946891819256404"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/preliminary-february-consumer-sentiment.html","title":"Preliminary February Consumer Sentiment decreases to 93.6"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-7kN07S2slhM\/VN4R-s_WlJI\/AAAAAAAAiSY\/vobVsvvFsjM\/s72-c\/ConSentFebPre2015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1063046017521924662"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-12T19:14:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-12T19:14:33.405-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Report: Foreclosures Increase in January, \"Clearing the deck\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: Data from other sources suggest\u0026nbsp;most of the loans on these properties were originated almost a decade ago. \u0026nbsp;Still \"clearing the deck\" after the storm.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom RealtyTrac: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.realtytrac.com\/news\/foreclosure-trends\/january-2015-u-s-foreclosure-market-report\/\"\u003EU.S. Foreclosure Activity Increases 5 Percent in January Driven By 15-Month High in Bank Repossessions\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ERealtyTrac® ... today released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for January 2015, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 119,888 U.S. properties in January, an increase of 5 percent from the previous month but still down 4 percent from a year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 5 percent monthly increase was driven primarily by \u003Cb\u003Ea 55 percent monthly jump in bank repossessions (REOs) to a 15-month high\u003C\/b\u003E. A total of 37,292 U.S. properties were repossessed by lenders in January, up 23 percent from a year ago to the highest monthly total since October 2013.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Due to our ponderous judicial system, most of the options have been exhausted, and the \u003Cb\u003Ejudges are now expediting the process\u003C\/b\u003E,” said Mike Pappas, CEO and president of the Keyes Company, covering the South Florida market. “The banks recognize the opportunity in this improving market and are aggressively trying to remove these properties from their balance sheets. It is encouraging, after seven years, to see the end near on this dramatic cycle.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Our agents’ REO and distress business has wound considerably down over the last two years,” said Mark Hughes, Chief Operating Officer at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. “Despite a bit of an extension to this wind-down process due to delayed actions created by the Homeowner Bill of Rights in 2013, we are preparing that this is really\u003Cb\u003E a final push to clear the decks of the a still disproportionate amount of distressed homes\u003C\/b\u003E and finally bring the market back to a more stability.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (preliminary for February). The consensus is for a reading of 98.5, up from 98.1 in January."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1063046017521924662\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1063046017521924662","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1063046017521924662"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1063046017521924662"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/report-foreclosures-increase-in-january.html","title":"Report: Foreclosures Increase in January, \"Clearing the deck\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2651285987084081115"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-12T14:10:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-12T14:10:13.466-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates increase to 3.69% in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Freddie Mac today: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com\/press-releases\/mortgage-rates-move-higher-on-strong-jobs-report-otcqb-fmcc-1175004\"\u003EMortgage Rates Move Higher on Strong Jobs Report \u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EFreddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher amid a strong employment report. Regardless, fixed-rate mortgages rates still remain near their May 23, 2013 lows. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.69 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending February 12, 2015, up from last week when it averaged 3.59 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.28 percent.   \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E15-year FRM this week averaged 2.99 percent with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.92 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.33 percent.  \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-UUhzvJ9_2l8\/VNz5cbK-EOI\/AAAAAAAAiSI\/9xcgEYYeSFo\/s1600\/FreddieRatesFeb2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-UUhzvJ9_2l8\/VNz5cbK-EOI\/AAAAAAAAiSI\/9xcgEYYeSFo\/s320\/FreddieRatesFeb2015.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the\u0026nbsp;30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgage interest rates from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E30 year mortgage rates are up a little (34 bps) from the all time low of 3.35% in late 2012, but down from 4.28% a year ago.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Freddie Mac survey started in 1971.  Mortgage rates were below 5% back in the 1950s."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2651285987084081115\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2651285987084081115","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2651285987084081115"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2651285987084081115"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/freddie-mac-30-year-mortgage-rates.html","title":"Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates increase to 3.69% in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-UUhzvJ9_2l8\/VNz5cbK-EOI\/AAAAAAAAiSI\/9xcgEYYeSFo\/s72-c\/FreddieRatesFeb2015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4870678218608733102"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-12T11:12:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-12T11:12:59.615-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Solid Start to 2015"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From HotelNewsNow.com: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.hotelnewsnow.com\/Article\/15245\/US-hotel-results-for-week-ending-7-February\"\u003EUS hotel results for week ending 7 February\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 February 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIn year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 1.9 percent to 57.5 percent.\u003C\/b\u003E Average daily rate increased 3.5 percent to finish the week at US$113.55. Revenue per available room for the week was up 5.5 percent to finish at US$65.32.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ENote: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHotels are now in the slow period of the year, but business travel will pick up soon.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-mDFd3UWREZ0\/VNzP-TzpnrI\/AAAAAAAAiR4\/teMBaU52o7E\/s1600\/HotelFeb122015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-mDFd3UWREZ0\/VNzP-TzpnrI\/AAAAAAAAiR4\/teMBaU52o7E\/s320\/HotelFeb122015.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2015, dashed orange is 2014, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.\u0026nbsp; Purple is for 2000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is solidly above the median for 2000-2007, and solidly above 2014.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESo far 2015 is at about the same level as 2000 (best year for hotels) - and 2015 will probably be the best year ever for hotels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EData Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.hotelnewsnow.com\/\"\u003EHotelNewsNow.com\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4870678218608733102\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4870678218608733102","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4870678218608733102"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4870678218608733102"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/hotels-solid-start-to-2015.html","title":"Hotels: Solid Start to 2015"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-mDFd3UWREZ0\/VNzP-TzpnrI\/AAAAAAAAiR4\/teMBaU52o7E\/s72-c\/HotelFeb122015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7858811215440307216"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-12T08:40:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-12T08:48:30.359-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Retail Sales decreased 0.8% in January"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.8% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.3% from January 2014. Sales in December were unrevised at a 0.9% decrease.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/retail\/marts\/www\/marts_current.pdf\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $439.8 billion, a decrease of 0.8 percent from the previous month, but up 3.3 percent above January 2014. ... The November to December 2014 percent change was unrevised from -0.9 percent.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-tHMtT-v5Cb0\/VNyuDaTLw8I\/AAAAAAAAiRg\/JmnsXI1-jq4\/s1600\/RetailJan2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-tHMtT-v5Cb0\/VNyuDaTLw8I\/AAAAAAAAiRg\/JmnsXI1-jq4\/s320\/RetailJan2015.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERetail sales ex-gasoline increased slightly.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERetail sales ex-autos decreased 0.9%.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe\u0026nbsp;second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-jKyeTGYcicM\/VNyuF2jWIhI\/AAAAAAAAiRo\/9H1bdILC-WY\/s1600\/RetailYoYJan2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change in Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-jKyeTGYcicM\/VNyuF2jWIhI\/AAAAAAAAiRo\/9H1bdILC-WY\/s320\/RetailYoYJan2015.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E  Retail and Food service sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.9% on a YoY basis (3.3% for all retail sales).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe decrease in January was below consensus expectations of a 0.5% decrease. \u0026nbsp;Sales for both November and December were revised up slightly.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlthough weaker than expected, after removing the impact of lower gasoline prices, this was an OK report."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7858811215440307216\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7858811215440307216","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7858811215440307216"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7858811215440307216"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/retail-sales-decreased-08-in-january.html","title":"Retail Sales decreased 0.8% in January"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-tHMtT-v5Cb0\/VNyuDaTLw8I\/AAAAAAAAiRg\/JmnsXI1-jq4\/s72-c\/RetailJan2015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3107037341020995289"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-12T08:30:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-12T08:33:48.434-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 304,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/workforcesecurity.doleta.gov\/press\/2015\/021215.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the week ending February 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 278,000 to 279,000. The 4-week moving average was 289,750, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 292,750 to 293,000. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe previous week was revised up to 279,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xwIYmyuF52k\/VNyrkRAVeSI\/AAAAAAAAiRU\/8xbTuMZzOBk\/s1600\/WeeklyClaimsFeb122015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xwIYmyuF52k\/VNyrkRAVeSI\/AAAAAAAAiRU\/8xbTuMZzOBk\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsFeb122015.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to\u0026nbsp;289,750.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was above the consensus forecast of 285,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3107037341020995289\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3107037341020995289","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3107037341020995289"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3107037341020995289"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_12.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 304,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xwIYmyuF52k\/VNyrkRAVeSI\/AAAAAAAAiRU\/8xbTuMZzOBk\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsFeb122015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8776322279125784957"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-11T18:55:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-11T18:55:56.831-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Reuters: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2015\/02\/11\/us-eurozone-greece-progress-idUSKBN0LF2QK20150211\"\u003EEuro zone, Greece fail to agree way forward following meeting\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWe explored a number of issues, one of which was the current program,\" Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, told a news conference in the early hours on Thursday in Brussels. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"We discussed the possibility of an extension. For some that is clear that is preferred option but we haven't come to that conclusion as yet. We will need a little more time.\" \u003C\/blockquote\u003EQuote of the day: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Ci\u003E“We are not negotiating the bailout; it was cancelled by its own failure.”\u003C\/i\u003E Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras\u003C\/blockquote\u003EEarlier I posted some of the details of the failed agreement: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/opinion-did-germany-fulfill-their.html\"\u003EDid Austerity in Greece Deliver?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGreece delivered on a primary surplus, but the details on unemployment and GDP show the \"program\" was the wrong policy. \u0026nbsp;Time to change the policy!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, the \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 285 thousand from 278 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also at 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003ERetail sales for January\u003C\/b\u003E will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to decrease 0.5% in January, and to decrease 0.5% ex-autos.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EManufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales\u003C\/b\u003E (business inventories) report for December.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8776322279125784957\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8776322279125784957","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8776322279125784957"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8776322279125784957"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/thursday-retail-sales-unemployment.html","title":"Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7806522484457690548"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-11T16:54:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-11T16:54:25.776-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"CNBC: EU and Greece Reach \"Agreement in Principle\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/102376511\"\u003EEU, Greece come to agreement in principle, meetings to continue: Source\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EGreece has reached an agreement, in principle, with the European Union to stay in an EU bailout program, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC Wednesday. \u003C\/blockquote\u003ENo details. "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7806522484457690548\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7806522484457690548","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7806522484457690548"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7806522484457690548"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/cnbc-eu-and-greece-reach-agreement-in.html","title":"CNBC: EU and Greece Reach \"Agreement in Principle\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2063695891520543165"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-11T13:30:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-11T13:30:35.423-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"EIA: Record Oil Inventories, Gasoline Prices expected to average $2.33\/gal in 2015"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Oil prices are down today, with Brent at $55.05 per barrel, and WTI at $49.47.  Note: There is less investment now, but current wells are still pumping.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is an excerpt from the\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/supply\/weekly\/pdf\/wpsrall.pdf\"\u003EWeekly Petroleum Status Report\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ending February 6, 2015, 20,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.0% of their operable capacity last week.  ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EU.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day last week\u003C\/b\u003E, down by 101,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 million barrels per day, 3.6% below the same four-week period last year.  ...\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-Rpoomz9dySQ\/VNufSUyEgPI\/AAAAAAAAiRE\/_dM-nE3Yjqs\/s1600\/OilInventoryFeb62015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Oil Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-Rpoomz9dySQ\/VNufSUyEgPI\/AAAAAAAAiRE\/_dM-nE3Yjqs\/s320\/OilInventoryFeb62015.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. \u003Cb\u003EAt 417.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level\u003C\/b\u003E for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EIt is difficult to forecast oil and gasoline prices due to world events - and the response of producers to price changes, but currently the EIA expects gasoline prices to average $2.94\/gal in 2015 according to the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/forecasts\/steo\/\"\u003EShort Term Energy Outlook\u003C\/a\u003E released yesterday: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• EIA forecasts that \u003Cb\u003EBrent crude oil prices will average $58\/bbl in 2015\u003C\/b\u003E and $75\/bbl in 2016, with 2015 and 2016 annual average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices expected to be $3\/bbl and $4\/bbl, respectively, below Brent. This price outlook is unchanged from last month's forecast. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Driven largely by falling crude oil prices, U.S. weekly regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.04\/gallon (gal) on January 26, the lowest since April 6, 2009, before increasing to $2.19\/gal on February 9. EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $3.36\/gal in 2014, to average \u003Cb\u003E$2.33\/gal in 2015\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cb\u003EThe average household is now expected to spend about $750 less for gasoline in 2015 compared with last yea\u003C\/b\u003Er because of lower prices. The projected regular gasoline retail price increases to an average of $2.73\/gal in 2016.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ERight now gasoline prices are down to around $2.22 per gallon nationally according to the Gasbuddy.com.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph is from Gasbuddy.com.  Note: If you click on \"show crude oil prices\", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\" font-size:16px=\"font-size:16px\" font-weight:bold=\"font-weight:bold\"\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\" id=\"gasbuddy_9182\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cscript language=\"JavaScript\" src=\"http:\/\/df.gasbuddy.com\/feed.gdf?k=AD86fw%2bSBQlgjCvR7hAFj0MO7eOPtkJ%2fKWzdzOCqpi9qLyKehfKgX1MyMcQjCorEOjYBx4IgygKHwC4rzx6exQ%3d%3d\u0026amp;i=9182\" type=\"text\/javascript\"\u003E\u003C\/script\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\" style=\"font-family: arial; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.orangecountygasprices.com\/retail_price_chart.aspx\" id=\"PCa_sitenm\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EOrange County\u0026nbsp;Historical Gas Price Charts\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;Provided by \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EGasBuddy.com\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2063695891520543165\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2063695891520543165","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2063695891520543165"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2063695891520543165"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/eia-record-oil-inventories-gasoline.html","title":"EIA: Record Oil Inventories, Gasoline Prices expected to average $2.33\/gal in 2015"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-Rpoomz9dySQ\/VNufSUyEgPI\/AAAAAAAAiRE\/_dM-nE3Yjqs\/s72-c\/OilInventoryFeb62015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-623523954646366349"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-11T10:35:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-11T10:35:53.627-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Opinion: Did Germany Fulfill their Promises?  Did Austerity in Greece Deliver?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Back in 2010, Greece agreed to a number of austerity measures.  In general, Greece met their obligations and is currently running a primary surplus.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGreece was told by the IMF, the Germans, and other that this would turn the Greek economy around.   Greece clearly needed some austerity, however many of us argued austerity alone would be a disaster for Greece, and for Europe in general.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBelow are the forecasts for Greece (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/scr\/2010\/cr10110.pdf\"\u003EIMF\u003C\/a\u003E) and the actual results (Eurostat).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClearly austerity alone failed.  Sadly European officials like German Finance minister Wolfgang Schauble have not changed their views and apologized to the Greeks.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is an \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/economy\/lew-calls-on-germany-to-focus-on-growth-to-spur-european-economy\/2013\/04\/09\/e0ceb47e-a124-11e2-9c03-6952ff305f35_story.html\"\u003Eactual quote\u003C\/a\u003E from Schauble in 2013: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"Nobody in Europe sees this contradiction between fiscal policy consolidation and growth,” Schauble said. “We have a growth-friendly process of consolidation, and we have sustainable growth, however you want to word it.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003EA \"growth friendly process\"? \"Sustainable growth\"?  Nonsense. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EObviously there is a contradiction between \"fiscal policy consolidation and growth\". And not everyone is blind to the obvious - some people in Europe see the obvious contradiction (just look at the data for Europe as a whole and Greece in particular).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt is time to stop blaming Greece (they mostly did what they were told), and start blaming the Germans and others for pushing the wrong policies. \u0026nbsp;And give Greece a little relief.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 320px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"3\"\u003EGreece: Annual GDP, Forecast and Actual\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYear\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EPromised\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EActual\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2009\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-4.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2010\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-5.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2011\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-2.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-8.9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2012\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-6.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2013\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3.9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2014\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2015\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.7\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"3\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003EIMF Forecasts and Eurostat Actual\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 320px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"3\"\u003EGreece: Annual Unemployment Rate,\u003Cbr \/\u003EForecast and Actual\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYear\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EPromised\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EActual\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2009\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2010\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11.8\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12.7\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2011\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E17.9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2012\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14.8\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E24.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2013\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E27.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2014\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E26.8\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2015\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"3\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003EIMF Forecasts and Eurostat Actual\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E2014 is Q1, Q2, Q3 average\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/623523954646366349\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=623523954646366349","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/623523954646366349"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/623523954646366349"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/opinion-did-germany-fulfill-their.html","title":"Opinion: Did Germany Fulfill their Promises?  Did Austerity in Greece Deliver?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8102178489987580211"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-11T07:01:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-11T07:01:00.218-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mbaa.org\/NewsandMedia\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 9.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 6, 2015. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Refinance Index decreased 10 percent from the previous week. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 3.84 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, the highest level since January 9, 2015, from 3.79 percent, with points increasing to 0.31 from 0.29 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-taC-SFtwDJ8\/VNp1uKcef-I\/AAAAAAAAiQs\/OgDUC_-5uwA\/s1600\/MBARefiFeb112015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-taC-SFtwDJ8\/VNp1uKcef-I\/AAAAAAAAiQs\/OgDUC_-5uwA\/s320\/MBARefiFeb112015.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt looks like 2015 will see more refinance activity than in 2014, especially from FHA loans!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-SSP2ITh8MIA\/VNp1v-yhpPI\/AAAAAAAAiQ0\/JviFFBPXIns\/s1600\/MBAFeb112015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-SSP2ITh8MIA\/VNp1v-yhpPI\/AAAAAAAAiQ0\/JviFFBPXIns\/s320\/MBAFeb112015.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the MBA, the purchase index is up 1% from a year ago."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8102178489987580211\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8102178489987580211","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8102178489987580211"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8102178489987580211"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-taC-SFtwDJ8\/VNp1uKcef-I\/AAAAAAAAiQs\/OgDUC_-5uwA\/s72-c\/MBARefiFeb112015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5780407162067117119"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-10T17:21:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-10T17:21:00.588-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.0% year-over-year in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFNC released their December\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.fncresidentialpriceindex.com\/tables.aspx\"\u003Eindex data\u003C\/a\u003E today.\u0026nbsp; FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values increased slightly from November to December (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted).\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 10 city MSA RPI declined in December, and the 20-MSA and 30-MSA RPIs increased .  These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENotes: In addition to the composite indexes, FNC presents price indexes for 30 MSAs.  FNC also provides seasonally adjusted data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe year-over-year (YoY) change was lower in December than in November, with the 100-MSA composite up 5.0% compared to December 2013. \u0026nbsp; In general, for FNC, the YoY increase has been slowing since peaking in March at 9.0%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe index is still down 19.6% from the peak in 2006.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-KuoBC5AbwDQ\/VLPm1uh-cxI\/AAAAAAAAh7g\/EkwSHVap93w\/s1600\/FNCNov2014.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-KuoBC5AbwDQ\/VLPm1uh-cxI\/AAAAAAAAh7g\/EkwSHVap93w\/s320\/FNCNov2014.PNG\" height=\"213\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the year-over-year change based on the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.fncresidentialpriceindex.com\/tables.aspx\"\u003EFNC index\u003C\/a\u003E (four composites) through December 2014.  The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMost of the price indexes have been showing a slowdown in price increases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe December Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, February 24th, and I expect Case-Shiller to show a further slowdown in YoY price increases."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5780407162067117119\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5780407162067117119","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5780407162067117119"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5780407162067117119"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/fnc-residential-property-values.html","title":"FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.0% year-over-year in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-KuoBC5AbwDQ\/VLPm1uh-cxI\/AAAAAAAAh7g\/EkwSHVap93w\/s72-c\/FNCNov2014.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2152461892859904911"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-10T14:24:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-10T14:24:00.342-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales Decline, Non-contingent Inventory up 13% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.lasvegasrealtor.com\/newsroom\/\"\u003EGLVAR reports local home prices up 8 percent for year\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAccording to GLVAR, the t\u003Cb\u003Eotal number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in January 2015 was 2,239, down from 2,734 in December 2014 and down from 2,565 one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E. At the current sales pace, Lynam said Southern Nevada continues to have roughly a four-month supply of available homes. REALTORS® consider a six-month supply to be a balanced market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EGLVAR has been tracking a two-year trend of fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In January, \u003Cb\u003E9.7 percent of all local sales were short sales\u003C\/b\u003E – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 10 percent in December and 17 percent a year ago. \u003Cb\u003EAnother 9.4 percent of January sales were bank-owned\u003C\/b\u003E, up from 8 percent in December, but down from 11 percent last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe total number of single-family homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service in January was 12,666, up 2.3 percent from 12,377 in December, but down 6.4 percent from one year ago. GLVAR tracked a total of 3,429 condos, high-rise condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS in January, up 4.5 percent from 3,282 in December and up 15.1 percent from January 2014.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBy the end of January, GLVAR reported 7,382 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer\u003C\/b\u003E. That’s down 5.0 percent from 7,774 such homes listed in December, but \u003Cb\u003Eup 12.9 percent from one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E. For condos and townhomes, the 2,327 properties listed without offers in January represented a 0.8 percent increase from 2,309 such properties listed in December and a 35.9 percent increase from one year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere are several key trends that we've been following:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) Overall sales were down 12.7% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) However conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were only down about 2% year-over-year.\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E In January 2014, only 72.0% of all sales were conventional equity.\u0026nbsp; In January 2015, 80.9% were standard equity sales. \u0026nbsp; Note: In January 2013 (two years ago), only 51.3% were equity! \u0026nbsp;A significant change.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 46.8% in January 2014 to 36.0% in January 2015. (investor buying appears to be declining).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E4) \u003Cb\u003ENon-contingent inventory is\u0026nbsp;up 12.9%\u0026nbsp;year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E. The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas.  Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year.  \u003Cb\u003EIt appears the inventory build is slowing\u003C\/b\u003E (an important change in many areas).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 320px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"2\"\u003ELas Vegas: Year-over-year\u003Cbr \/\u003EChange in Non-contingent \u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EMonth\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYoY\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-58.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-53.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-42.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-24.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-13.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E41.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E60.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E73.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E77.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E78.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E96.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E107.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E127.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E103.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E100.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E86.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E55.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E38.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E29.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E25.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E20.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E18.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-15\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2152461892859904911\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2152461892859904911","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2152461892859904911"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2152461892859904911"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/las-vegas-real-estate-in-january-sales.html","title":"Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales Decline, Non-contingent Inventory up 13% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6355926145385852262"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-10T11:58:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-10T11:58:12.189-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Trulia: Asking House Prices up 7.5% year-over-year in January"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.trulia.com\/trends\/2015\/02\/trulia-price-rent-monitor-jan-2015\/\"\u003EFor Home Prices, The Rebound Effect Is Over. Long Live Job Growth\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENationwide, asking prices on for-sale homes climbed 0.5% month-over-month in January, seasonally adjusted\u003C\/b\u003E — the smallest monthly gain since August. Year-over-year, asking prices rose 7.5%, down from the 9.3% year-over-year increase in January 2014. Asking prices increased year-over-year in 94 of the 100 largest U.S. metros.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe biggest home price increases are not necessarily in markets that had more severe housing busts. But the metros where home prices are now rising fastest are, almost without exception, the ones with faster job growth. Why? A growing economy fuels housing demand. Among the 10 metros with the biggest year-over-year price increases, nine had at least 2% year-over-year job growth. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENationwide, rents rose 6.5% year-over-year in January\u003C\/b\u003E. The three large rental markets with the steepest rent increases – Denver, Oakland, and San Francisco – all have had job growth of 2% or more. In general, metros with faster job growth have larger rent increases, though some Sunbelt markets like Riverside-San Bernardino, Houston, and San Diego have had impressive job growth with more limited rent increases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ENote: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and although year-over-year price increases had been slowing, the year-over-year change increased in January compared to December. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe month-to-month increase suggests further house price increases over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is much more in the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.trulia.com\/trends\/2015\/02\/trulia-price-rent-monitor-jan-2015\/\"\u003Earticle\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6355926145385852262\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6355926145385852262","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6355926145385852262"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6355926145385852262"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/trulia-asking-house-prices-up-75-year.html","title":"Trulia: Asking House Prices up 7.5% year-over-year in January"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-241176253590293774"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-10T10:00:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-10T10:07:09.579-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: Jobs Openings at 5.0 million in December, Up 28% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the BLS: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/jolts.nr0.htm\"\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Summary\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThere were 5.0 million job openings on the last business day of December, little changed from 4.8 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ... \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EQuits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. ... There were 2.7 million quits in December, little changed from November. \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis series started in December 2000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. \u003Cb\u003EThis report is for December, the most recent employment report was for January.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Q60opady2iQ\/VNoeGepLMWI\/AAAAAAAAiQc\/PCA1LfFJFCg\/s1600\/JOLTSDec2014.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey \" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Q60opady2iQ\/VNoeGepLMWI\/AAAAAAAAiQc\/PCA1LfFJFCg\/s320\/JOLTSDec2014.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.\u0026nbsp; When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EJobs openings increased in December to 5.028 million from 4.847 million in November. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe number of job openings (yellow) are up 28% year-over-year compared to December 2013.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EQuits are up 12% year-over-year.  These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for \"quits\").\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is another very positive report. \u0026nbsp;It is a good sign that job openings are over 5 million, and that quits are increasing year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/241176253590293774\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=241176253590293774","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/241176253590293774"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/241176253590293774"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/bls-jobs-openings-at-50-million-in.html","title":"BLS: Jobs Openings at 5.0 million in December, Up 28% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Q60opady2iQ\/VNoeGepLMWI\/AAAAAAAAiQc\/PCA1LfFJFCg\/s72-c\/JOLTSDec2014.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7439551175387213577"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-10T09:01:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-10T09:01:38.843-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in January"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nfib.com\/surveys\/small-business-economic-trends\/\"\u003ESMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM FALLS, BUT STILL IN NORMAL ZONE\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.5 points to 97.9\u003C\/b\u003E, giving back the December gain that took the Index over 100. Still, the Index indicates that the small business sector is operating in a somewhat “normal” zone.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent of owners reporting job creation fell 4 percentage points to a net 5 percent of owners, still a solid number. ... Twenty-six percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 1 point and a very solid reading. ... \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003ELabor costs continue to put pressure on the bottom line but energy prices are down a lot. \u003Cb\u003ETwo percent reported reduced worker compensation and 25 percent reported raising compensation\u003C\/b\u003E, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 25 percent reporting higher compensation, unchanged from December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-0PIg1jdvQTc\/VNoJEqUJ6cI\/AAAAAAAAiQM\/8GWGvgbBn_0\/s1600\/NFIBJan2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Small Business Optimism Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-0PIg1jdvQTc\/VNoJEqUJ6cI\/AAAAAAAAiQM\/8GWGvgbBn_0\/s320\/NFIBJan2015.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe index decreased to 97.9 in January from 100.4 in December."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7439551175387213577\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7439551175387213577","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7439551175387213577"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7439551175387213577"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/nfib-small-business-optimism-index.html","title":"NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in January"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-0PIg1jdvQTc\/VNoJEqUJ6cI\/AAAAAAAAiQM\/8GWGvgbBn_0\/s72-c\/NFIBJan2015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5934473014423311044"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-09T19:21:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-09T19:21:00.262-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NY Times: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/02\/10\/business\/international\/greece-to-propose-a-debt-compromise-plan.html\"\u003EGreece to Propose a Debt Compromise Plan to Creditors\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EHoping to defuse a standoff that has set Europe and financial markets on edge, Greek officials intend to propose a detailed compromise plan at an emergency meeting with creditors on Wednesday in Brussels, a finance ministry official here said on Monday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EGreece still plans to reject some of the harshest austerity conditions attached to Greece’s bailout loans, but will propose retaining about 70 percent of the terms, according to the official.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAthens will propose replacing the remaining 30 percent of the austerity conditions with new reforms that the Greek government will devise together with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. \u003C\/blockquote\u003ETuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003ENFIB Small Business Optimism Index\u003C\/b\u003E for January.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Early: \u003Cb\u003ETrulia Price Rent Monitors for January\u003C\/b\u003E. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\u003C\/b\u003E for December from the BLS.  Jobs openings increased in November to 4.972 million from 4.830 million in October.  The number of job openings were up 21% year-over-year compared to November 2013, and Quits were up 7% year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5934473014423311044\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5934473014423311044","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5934473014423311044"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5934473014423311044"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/tuesday-job-openings-small-business.html","title":"Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6458385605012765520"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-09T15:20:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-09T15:20:13.938-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"West Coast Port Slowdown Ongoing"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At least this is getting more media attention ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the LA Times: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.latimes.com\/business\/la-fi-port-dispute-20150209-story.html\"\u003EShip unloading resumes at West Coast ports as labor talks continue\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EEmployers and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union have been locked in bitter talks for a new West Coast dockworkers contract for nearly nine months -- a period that has seen debilitating congestion up and down the West Coast.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe line of ships anchored off the Long Beach and Los Angeles coast waiting for berths grew over the weekend, from 28 Friday afternoon to 31 Sunday morning, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe two sides are expected to meet again this afternoon.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom CNBC: West Coast ports: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/102409090\"\u003ERetail's $7 billion problem\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ERetailers' anxiety levels are rising as gridlock grinds on with contract negotiations between West Coast dockworkers and port terminal operators.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt has been a long nine months for those dealing directly, or indirectly, with the lack of a West Coast port contract, and after a temporary shutdown over the weekend, retail lobby groups and consultants are assigning potential costs to the issue. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to a Kurt Salmon analysis, congestion at West Coast ports could cost retailers as much as $7 billion this year. That congestion cost comes from a combination of the higher price of carrying goods and missed sales due to below optimal inventory levels.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6458385605012765520\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6458385605012765520","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6458385605012765520"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6458385605012765520"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/west-coast-port-slowdown-ongoing.html","title":"West Coast Port Slowdown Ongoing"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3694884851867836819"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-09T11:59:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-09T11:59:22.847-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Last year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2014\/06\/census-bureau-largest-5-year-population.html\"\u003ECensus Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the \"20 to 24\" Age Group\u003C\/a\u003E, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2014\/12\/decline-in-labor-force-participation.html\"\u003EDecline in the Labor Force Participation Rate: Mostly Demographics and Long Term Trends\u003C\/a\u003E, and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2014\/06\/the-future-is-still-bright.html\"\u003EThe Future is still Bright!\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI pointed out that \"even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics).  The good news is that will change soon.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EChanges in demographics are an important determinant of economic growth, and although most people focus on the aging of the \"baby boomer\" generation, the movement of younger cohorts into the prime working age is another key story in coming years.   Here is a graph of the prime working age population (\u003Cb\u003Ethis is population, not the labor force\u003C\/b\u003E) from 1948 through January 2015. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-YAdLOO7sIZk\/VNjm06JDPVI\/AAAAAAAAiP8\/A_BZvRIqg0M\/s1600\/PrimeJan2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Prime Working Age Populaton\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-YAdLOO7sIZk\/VNjm06JDPVI\/AAAAAAAAiP8\/A_BZvRIqg0M\/s320\/PrimeJan2015.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere was a huge surge in the prime working age population in the '70s, '80s and '90s - and the prime age population has been mostly flat recently (even declined a little).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe prime working age labor force grew even quicker than the population in the '70s and '80s due to the increase in participation of women.  In fact, the prime working age labor force was increasing 3%+ per year in the '80s!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESo when we compare economic growth to the '70s, '80, or 90's we have to remember this difference in demographics (the '60s saw solid economic growth as near-prime age groups increased sharply).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe prime working age population peaked in 2007, and appears to have bottomed at the end of 2012.\u0026nbsp; The good news is the prime working age group has started to grow again, and should be growing solidly by 2020 - and this should boost economic activity in the years ahead."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3694884851867836819\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3694884851867836819","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3694884851867836819"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3694884851867836819"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/prime-working-age-population-growing.html","title":"Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-YAdLOO7sIZk\/VNjm06JDPVI\/AAAAAAAAiP8\/A_BZvRIqg0M\/s72-c\/PrimeJan2015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7041938276072123662"},"published":{"$t":"2015-02-09T09:50:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-02-09T09:50:42.710-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"By request, a few more employment graphs ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere are the previous posts on the employment report:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/january-employment-report-257000-jobs.html\"\u003EJanuary Employment Report: 257,000 Jobs, 5.7% Unemployment Rate\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/employment-report-comments-and-graphs.html\"\u003EEmployment Report Comments and Graphs\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003EDuration of Unemployment\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-98wTqnNFQ0w\/VNjH49mqYiI\/AAAAAAAAiPU\/0sxGG6DzfA4\/s1600\/UnemployDurJan2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Unemployment Duration\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-98wTqnNFQ0w\/VNjH49mqYiI\/AAAAAAAAiPU\/0sxGG6DzfA4\/s320\/UnemployDurJan2015.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: center; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe general trend is down for all categories, and both the \"less than 5 weeks\" and 6 to 14 weeks\" are close to normal levels.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe long term unemployed is just below 1.8% of the labor force - the lowest since January 2009 - however\u0026nbsp;the number (and percent) of long term unemployed remains a serious problem.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003EUnemployment by Education\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-dUayoDahgpU\/VNjH7aPDJQI\/AAAAAAAAiPc\/Q5LS6XiSJIo\/s1600\/UnemployEdJan2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Unemployment by Level of Education\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-dUayoDahgpU\/VNjH7aPDJQI\/AAAAAAAAiPc\/Q5LS6XiSJIo\/s320\/UnemployEdJan2015.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUnfortunately this data only goes back to 1992 and only includes one previous recession (the stock \/ tech bust in 2001). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate - and it appears all four groups are generally trending down. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlthough education matters for the unemployment rate, it doesn't appear to matter as far as finding new employment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered \"employed\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003EConstruction Employment\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-I6xJ7fvjJIY\/VNjH-eF6e_I\/AAAAAAAAiPk\/iLhpZ3Cv5OI\/s1600\/ConstPayrollJan2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Construction Employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-I6xJ7fvjJIY\/VNjH-eF6e_I\/AAAAAAAAiPk\/iLhpZ3Cv5OI\/s320\/ConstPayrollJan2015.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: center; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows total construction employment as reported by the BLS (not just residential).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESince construction employment bottomed in January 2011, construction payrolls have increased by 882 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003EDiffusion Indexes\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-q8e3L7dwdGU\/VNjIAHdNjHI\/AAAAAAAAiPs\/ULSXMPSmcWI\/s1600\/DiffusionJan2015.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Diffusion Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-q8e3L7dwdGU\/VNjIAHdNjHI\/AAAAAAAAiPs\/ULSXMPSmcWI\/s320\/DiffusionJan2015.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 62.4 in January, down from 69.0 in December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor manufacturing, the diffusion index was at 58.1, down from 64.4 in December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThink of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS. \u0026nbsp;Above 60 is very good. \u0026nbsp;From the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.b.htm\"\u003EBLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EFigures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EOverall job growth was widespread in January - another good sign."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7041938276072123662\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7041938276072123662","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7041938276072123662"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7041938276072123662"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/more-employment-graphs-duration-of.html","title":"More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Bill McBride"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/102642463073823524686"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-_aFA-4vsb08\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAXW8\/D7LkH2uHoV0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-98wTqnNFQ0w\/VNjH49mqYiI\/AAAAAAAAiPU\/0sxGG6DzfA4\/s72-c\/UnemployDurJan2015.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});