Comments on Calculated Risk: March Employment Report

سید اولاد پیغمبر اسلام = سنده اولاد شیطانسید اولاد...

2007-06-14T03:29:00.000-04:00

سید اولاد پیغمبر اسلام = سنده اولاد شیطان

سید اولاد زهرا بنت رسول = فضله نجس شیطان در خاک پاک ایران.

سنده موجودات در حلقوم فاطمه زهرای بنت رسول الله

We will have every Hizbollah women fucked by dogs....

2007-05-07T06:33:00.000-04:00

We will have every Hizbollah women fucked by dogs.
We will send Phallus of ours into ass of All priests moslems.
We will have Khamenei and Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad and Khatami and Akbar Ganji fucked by a great penis Of donkey and whale .
We will fuck all foreign government which help mullah.
کیر سگ تو کس ننه سید اولاد پیغمبر و کس ننه خود پیامبر اسلام.
کیر خوک تو کس ننه امام حسین.
کیر خر تو کس ننه شیعیان.
صلوات: الله و کیر خر تو کس ننه محمد و آل محمد.
This is a beautiful cultural message for you.

桐城的历史与旗袍文化桐城位于安徽省中部偏西南，地处长江经济协作区腹地，全市总人口75万，市区常住人...

2007-05-03T03:09:00.000-04:00

桐城的历史与旗袍文化
桐城位于安徽省中部偏西南，地处长江经济协作区腹地，全市总人口75万，市区常住人口12万。国土面积1644平方公里，耕地面积52.3万亩，其中水田47万亩，旱地5.3万亩，湖泊水面16.7万亩。地势自西北向东南，山地、丘陵、平原依次呈阶梯分布，属亚热带气候区，气候温和，雨水充沛，四季分明，宜林、宜农、宜牧、宜渔。境内矿藏丰富，初步探明的有石墨、矾、花岗石、大理石、铜、铁等10余种，受国家保护的珍稀动物有金钱豹、穿山甲、水灵猫、水獭、江豚、白鹤、巨晰等，珍稀植物有银杏、金钱松、鹅掌楸、杜仲等，药用植物多达200余种。桐城,桐城人,尿液分析仪,血液细胞分析仪,桐城历史悠久，文风昌盛，为江淮文化圈的发祥地和集中地。早在春秋时代，即称桐国；公元757年正式建县，公元1996年撤县设市，历时1200余年。其间人文勃兴，代有英才。唐宋两代的曹松、李公麟，一以诗名，一以画显。明清时期中进士者就达240余人。其中，明末大思想家、科学家方以智堪称“十七世纪罕无伦比的百科全书式”的大学者；特别是以戴名世、方苞、刘大櫆、姚鼐为代表的"桐城派"，雄霸文坛200余年，拥有作家1200余人，创作传世作品2000余种，是中国文学史上迄今为止时间最长、作家最多、影响最大的散文流派。近现代桐城名人有美学宗师朱光潜，一代大哲方东美，革命家、外交家黄镇，农工民主党创建人章伯钧，计算机之父慈云桂。cheong-sam,cheongsam,杭州网站建设,杭州seo优化京师大学堂首任总教习吴汝纶先生创办的桐城中学已是百年名校，目前全市每年向高校输送新生2000多人，高考达线率保持全省领先水平。桐城是黄梅戏之乡，孕育了以严凤英为代表的一代黄梅戏表演艺术家。桐城也因此而成为安徽省历史文化名城，享有“文都”盛誉。

Consumers have not been adding significantly to th...

2007-04-06T20:07:00.000-04:00

Consumers have not been adding significantly to their loan debt the past several years which is reflected in lower auto and durable goods orders.

There is more to it then just credit... folks might need to actually wear out a few of those cars before they replace them. if they add to their savings in the meantime, is that so terrible?

I sell parts into both appliance & automotive (though why I have no idea - headache central let me tell you).

One of the things the automotive OEs watch is age of the existing rolling stock - age of vehicles out on the road. Current rolling stock is VERY new... meaning we could go an awfully long time before we got in a position where we really needed to replace cars out there.

This is very different from say the 80s - when cars were all but rusting apart on the road before folks replace them.

So it was no surprise that the consumer closed its wallet and made wiser choices regarding (1) debt and (2) durables. I would love to think some of them woke up and smelled the coffee. That is very bullish long term if only slightly bearish short run.

Even though I have skin in this game - seeing folks make intelligent choices about when to and when not to replace stuff is in the long run to their, my & our benefit.

I've been threw this before, if this is as bad as it gets we'll be okay.

The question to ask is 'is this all there is'?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Outstanding U.S. consum...

2007-04-06T19:42:00.000-04:00

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Outstanding U.S. consumer debt grew at its slowest pace since October in February, held back by a small gain in nonrevolving credit, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.
Overall consumer credit rose by $2.97 billion in February, or 1.5% annualized, the Fed said.

consumer loans which include CC have grown at a annual rate of 2.5% since the end of 2004. Consumers have not been adding significantly to their loan debt the past several years which is reflected in lower auto and durable goods orders.

No thanks, Steve, I'm having a peanut butter sandw...

2007-04-06T19:34:00.000-04:00

No thanks, Steve, I'm having a peanut butter sandwich.

Would you like a Taco Bell E-Coli Melt?LOL!!Having...

2007-04-06T19:31:00.000-04:00

Would you like a Taco Bell E-Coli Melt?

LOL!!

Having worked in agri biz in my distant past, I probably can hunt up some guys that can make sure that e coli strain is the worst possible.

Don't want to get second rate for top dollar.

Banker didn't retire with enough if he still gives...

2007-04-06T19:29:00.000-04:00

Banker didn't retire with enough if he still gives a crap about the market. I wonder if maybe he washed out & is making lemonade from the lemons of a prior bubble.

tanta,Would you like a Taco Bell E-Coli Melt?

2007-04-06T19:09:00.000-04:00

tanta,

Would you like a Taco Bell E-Coli Melt?

The way our economy works is the the "new" is neve...

2007-04-06T19:03:00.000-04:00

The way our economy works is the the "new" is never stress tested, until it is! Then what doesn't work takes a beating is modified and improved. it is true of cars, junk bonds, computers, retailers, food franchises and everything else.

Damn straight, people! So get into that Pinto with the Firestone tires, drive over to the CVS to pick up your Vioxx, and go get yourself an Option ARM on a Lennar home built on a levee!

Risk management is for pussies, huh?

We won't know we are in a recession, until we are ...

2007-04-06T19:01:00.000-04:00

We won't know we are in a recession, until we are there.

That's basically it, isn't it Vader? It isn't real until you feel it, regardless of what statistics say.

I remember the old story of the Midwest depression-era hot dog stand. Thousands of people stream by daily, stopping and buying a hot dog along their way to finding a job further west. One customer says "How's business?". The vendor says "great!". The customer says "That's not right -- don't you know that we're in a depression?". The vendor, suddenly frightened for his future, closed up shop and joined the westerly wandering masses.

Don't know if it's fact or not, but it certainly rings true.

Excuse me... that should have been something more ...

2007-04-06T18:54:00.000-04:00

Excuse me... that should have been something more like "If everything worked like you think it does we'd all be Romans". Oh well.

Banker, if everyone thought the way you do we'd al...

2007-04-06T18:52:00.000-04:00

Banker, if everyone thought the way you do we'd all be Romans.

Pretty soon you'll have to stop pointing out pretty trees and acknowledge that the forest is on fire. That day isn't today, but it's coming.

Gentle folk. We won't know we are in a recession,...

2007-04-06T18:47:00.000-04:00

Gentle folk.

We won't know we are in a recession, until we are there.

For some it will be a depression, for some a recession and some an inconvenience.

bankerYou clearly know nothing of demographics or ...

2007-04-06T18:43:00.000-04:00

banker

You clearly know nothing of demographics or you wouldn't call that an unproven assertion. Deny the housing bubble all you like, it wont change anything. Do you think most people in the last few years can make fully amortizing payments. Nope. It's a bubble. Next. The financial system is not stress tested - that's not an unproven assertion either. It's not proven that you are a complete idiot, but the evidence is piling up.

You made references to all recessions, therefore the last is included.

By the way, you're not funny. The phone call was a wrong number; it was for you.

My, my, such unbankerly language. I used to be a b...

2007-04-06T18:31:00.000-04:00

My, my, such unbankerly language. I used to be a banker, but then banks became velocity shops when real bankers were pushed out by the sales mavens.

But I'm not writing from the poorhouse after timing the market. No, I semi-retired early after being 99% invested at times and 99% in cash at other times...like now.

I retired at 37. It's not a bad way to go is it? :)

Geoff,Yes, the US economy always perseveres and ov...

2007-04-06T18:29:00.000-04:00

Geoff,

Yes, the US economy always perseveres and overcomes recessions, returning to growth. But not every challenge we will face is represented by what has happened in the past. We are now staring down a very very different demographic profile, combined with a reckless fiscal policy, both coinciding with massive financial system developments that have never been stress tested, and at the same time myriad asset bubbles.

Boy, the amount of unproven assertions there is extraordinary for a single sentence. Congratulations! The way our economy works is the the "new" is never stress tested, until it is! Then what doesn't work takes a beating is modified and improved. it is true of cars, junk bonds, computers, retailers, food franchises and everything else. Of course the better way to look at it is the economy is stress tested constantly by new situations every day. It deals with some better than others and most pretty well.

To ignore this and say the future will be rosy is just silly. What we are trying to understand here is how severe the next recession will be. No one is saying we will start declining and never grow again. But to say that because the last recession was mild (thanks to counterbalances like low rates, giant tax cuts and a massive housing bubble) that the next will be as mild, when clearly the available recession fighting tools are largely nonexistent this time around, is the kind of useless analysis that adds nothing to this forum.

I made no reference to the "last" recession so the rest of this BS can safely be ignored. Care to imagine other things I didn't actually say?

If you could just for a second stop with the incredibly annoying troll-like taunting of other points of view here, we might take you seriously.

Um, the pot is on your other line.

Banker: "Bet the other way if you wish or better y...

2007-04-06T18:19:00.000-04:00

Banker: "Bet the other way if you wish or better yet try to time the myriad ups and downs. Good luck with that. I look forward to your letters from poor house telling us how it all turned out for you."

My, my, such unbankerly language. I used to be a banker, but then banks became velocity shops when real bankers were pushed out by the sales mavens.

But I'm not writing from the poorhouse after timing the market. No, I semi-retired early after being 99% invested at times and 99% in cash at other times...like now.

HVH - ex-banker

I dont see anyone here who is making the argument ...

2007-04-06T18:03:00.001-04:00

I dont see anyone here who is making the argument that tomorrow is the recession, negative GDP growth now, etc.

Geoff,

Respectfully, several people have rolled exactly that out in past threads. Some have stated we are in a recession right now. Our host CR has predicted a recession this year, I suspect Tanta thinks the end of the world is coming now if not sooner [ducks] Roubini, the patron saint around here, last time I looked was saying 70% chance of recession coming this year etc.

In those contexts, this job report is absolutely evidence that that view is suspect. It is of course, only one piece of data. As always, bulls like me (who is really only a near-term bull compared to the sky is falling folks) look forward to the next piece of data to reconsider our views.

I apologize if my presence here annoys you.

PS-I am the biggest long-term bull there is.

Of course this is a good report

banker - Yes, the US economy always perseveres and...

2007-04-06T18:03:00.000-04:00

banker - Yes, the US economy always perseveres and overcomes recessions, returning to growth. But not every challenge we will face is represented by what has happened in the past. We are now staring down a very very different demographic profile, combined with a reckless fiscal policy, both coinciding with massive financial system developments that have never been stress tested, and at the same time myriad asset bubbles. To ignore this and say the future will be rosy is just silly. What we are trying to understand here is how severe the next recession will be. No one is saying we will start declining and never grow again. But to say that because the last recession was mild (thanks to counterbalances like low rates, giant tax cuts and a massive housing bubble) that the next will be as mild, when clearly the available recession fighting tools are largely nonexistent this time around, is the kind of useless analysis that adds nothing to this forum. If you could just for a second stop with the incredibly annoying troll-like taunting of other points of view here, we might take you seriously.

Looks like a lot of perma-bulls are still picking ...

2007-04-06T17:52:00.000-04:00

Looks like a lot of perma-bulls are still picking up nickels ahead of the steamroller. Sure, we can't predict exactly when it'll happen, but they will get squished. In the meantime, they'll just continue to deny that there even is a steamroller.

Anybody with half a clue or more realizes that over time the American economy is the steamroller and shorting it is the fool's game. The economy is more than twice as big as it was 25 years ago. In those 25 years we've had recessions, wars, industries crumble, new one's arise, the economic rise, fall and coming resurgence of Japan, oil spikes, deregulation, new regulations, Republicans in power, Democrats in power, a weak dollar, a strong dollar, a tech bubble (a real one, not what we talk about here) and technological change none of us could have imagined 25 years ago. All along there were always knuckleheads running around crying "the sky is falling!" For very brief periods of time they have been right...then crushed by the resurgent steamroller. In 25 years, I'll be the US economy will be twice as big as it is today. In the interim? We'll have recessions and booms, wars, deregulation and new regulation, boomswin some sectors, busts in others, inductries will crumble and new ones will arise etc. Bet the other way if you wish or better yet try to time the myriad ups and downs. Good luck with that. I look forward to your letters from poor house telling us how it all turned out for you.

OK, let's look at recent trends. On the good produ...

2007-04-06T17:43:00.000-04:00

OK, let's look at recent trends.

On the good producing side :

First, construction jobs, net of about zero gain for the past 5 months. A big gain this month produces nearly a third of the total jobs. Manufacturing shedding jobs consistently.

Service jobs :

Trending down overall the past few months, despite a recovery in retail job gains. Temporary help, a leading indicator, trending down significantly and has gone negative last two months. Health and education pretty much recession proof (at least in the last recession) and posting 40k average consistently a month. Govt jobs picking up speed - but who cares. Business and financial jobs both on softening downward trend.

Now, take the 3 month moving average of monthly job gains overall and you'll see it has been trending down since June 2005, not surprisingly, when the glory days of the housing bubble came to and end.

Next, push forward what you see happening in the individual sectors: Take the big ding that will eventually come to construction (it will come, just not as soon as some would like), add slower profit growth and falling capital spending to the outlook for finance jobs, give yourself 40k health and educ a month, pare back state govt jobs as revenues drop, add in a bit of stronger fed job growth from the administration doing all it can to ruin the budget and offset the coming recession, be generous and keep adding to retail job, even though consumer spending is clearly slowing, especially in retail, and keep paring back manufacturing jobs.

I could go on, but there is nothing to be happy about in this report, except somehow it manages to give you annoying bulls a good data point to cheer about and push in our faces here, so that you can then shout loudly how we are all "perma-bears" and other crap like that, which is clearly the message of trolls, who like to taunt others when they cant win an argument. Not all of us here are bears, we are just trying to understand where the economy is headed, and only a knucklehead could see current trends as something to be happy about. I dont see anyone here who is making the argument that tomorrow is the recession, negative GDP growth now, etc...we are just analyzing a number of figures that end up rolling into your glorious 2% GDP figures, which will amazing rebound to 3% because you say every downward trend has now reached its nadir. Good grief...

As for the continued garbage about the stock market, just please, give it a rest. You folks trot that out here as some kind of proof that analysts dont understand where the economy is going, when clearly, that is one of the last things to fall apart, only when bullheaded posters like yourselves can no longer live in denial about the real trends at work in the economy. The way you argue makes reading these comments very tiring.

Dryfly, the consumer credit report may bullish for...

2007-04-06T17:41:00.000-04:00

Dryfly, the consumer credit report may bullish for the savings rate, but it does not seem so bullish for the economy. Growth of $2.5 billion in credit card debt is pretty good if we (a) assume that no one is using credit cards for debt service, and (b) ignore the contraction in MEW. OTOH, the growth of only $0.5 billion in car and boat loans smacks of a downturn in spending. Let's see how the retail sales number looks on the 16th.

By the way great blog. FWIW, the economy expanded ...

2007-04-06T17:19:00.000-04:00

By the way great blog.

FWIW, the economy expanded at 146,000 payroll jobs in the first quarter. Historically, that isn't impressive but average job growth. So why is the unemployment rate so low? I figure this has been asked time and time again. But job growth was higher in 1996, yet the unemployment rate was higher.

illegals?
Bush?(hey, got to give the conspiracy theorists their buzz)
lagging job growth we have not seen?

Not a overly bad job situation. I only have a liberal arts major, but got a job with a moderate sized company in pharmacuetical sales(granted I will admittable point out that people claim I am "hot" and look good in a suit which is important in that industry lol). I had been looking for 3 years, 2003-2005 were awfull with little in the ways of calls. In 2006, things began to get better and I started getting offers left and right.

They keep track, but without the funding, it isn't...

2007-04-06T17:11:00.000-04:00

They keep track, but without the funding, it isn't as good.........I think. Maybe Winter knows more.