Friday, December 15, 2017

Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 12/15/2017 12:01:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

The strong retail sales data provided a 0.3pp boost to our 4Q GDP tracking estimate, bringing it up to 2.4%.
emphasis added
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after [the] Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and [the] retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.0% for 2017:Q4 and 3.1% for 2018:Q1.
CR Note: It looks likely that GDP will be over 3% again in Q4.