Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book

by Bill McBride on 10/17/2017 06:27:00 PM

Back in 2014, I wrote this ...

For amusement: Years ago, whenever there was a market sell-off, my friend Tak Hallus (Stephen Robinett) would shout at his TV tuned to CNBC "Bring out the bears!".

This was because CNBC would usually bring on the bears whenever there was a sell-off, and bulls whenever the market rallied.

Today was no exception with Marc Faber on CNBC:
"This year, for sure—maybe from a higher diving board—the S&P will drop 20 percent," Faber said, adding: "I think, rather, 30 percent"
And Faber from August 8, 2013:
Faber expect to see stocks end the year "maybe 20 percent [lower], maybe more!"
And from October 24, 2012:
"I believe globally we are faced with slowing economies and disappointing corporate profits, and I will not be surprised to see the Dow Jones, the S&P, the major indices, down from the recent highs by say, 20 percent," Faber said...
Since the market is up 30% since his 2012 prediction, shouldn't he be expecting a 50% decline now?
Now the market is up about 80% since his 2012 prediction. I mention Faber - not because of his forecasting record - but because of his racist comments today (he will no longer be on CNBC).

I guess CNBC has an opening for a permabear!

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for September. The consensus is for 1.170 million SAAR, down from the August rate of 1.180 million.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.