Monday, September 11, 2017

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Slips" in August

by Bill McBride on 9/11/2017 03:00:00 PM

Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing.

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Slips in August

The Dodge Momentum Index moved lower in August, falling 2.4% to 129.1 (2000=100) from its revised July reading of 132.2. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The decline in August can be attributed to an 8.7% drop in the commercial component of the Momentum Index, while the institutional component rose 7.3%. The commercial component has seen a steep rise over the past year as large projects – particularly office buildings – entered the planning cycle. The August retreat for the commercial component brings planning activity back to a level more consistent with a sustainable pace of development.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 129.1 in August, down from 132.2 in July.

The index is only up 1.4% year-over-year.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This suggests some further increases in CRE spending over the next year.