by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2017 09:28:00 AM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in July were up 3.0% year-over-year.

2) Active inventory is now down 8.9% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the ninth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices are rising a little faster this year (2.5% through May or 6.2% annual rate).

July Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Jul-08	5,9741	---	---	---	54,5272	---
Jul-09	9,095	52.2%	3,269	35.9%	38,024	---2
Jul-10	7,101	-21.9%	2,901	40.9%	42,887	12.8%
Jul-11	8,397	18.3%	3,779	45.0%	27,663	-35.5%
Jul-12	7,152	-14.8%	3,214	44.9%	20,384	-26.3%
Jul-13	8,214	14.8%	2,944	35.8%	20,049	-1.6%
Jul-14	6,790	-17.3%	1,681	24.8%	27,081	35.1%
Jul-15	7,915	16.6%	1,731	21.9%	22,940	-15.3%
Jul-16	7,775	-1.8%	1,534	19.7%	23,695	3.3%
Jul-17	8,010	3.0%	1,541	19.2%	21,590	-8.9%
1 July 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more 2 July 2008 Inventory includes pending