Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million in July, down 2.5% from June’s preliminary pace and up 0.9% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the YOY decline in active listings last month was slightly less than in June, and I forecast that the NAR’s existing home inventory estimate for July will be 1.98 million, up 1.0% from June’s preliminary estimate and down 6.2% from last July’s estimate.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s estimate of the median exiting home sales price last month was up 6.1% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release existing home sales for July on Thursday, August 24th. The early consensus forecast is for sales of 5.56 million SAAR (take the under!).