Thursday, April 27, 2017

Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI

by Bill McBride on 4/27/2017 08:23:00 PM

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.2 percent on April 27, down from 0.5 percent on April 18. The forecast of first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 0.3 percent to 0.1 percent after yesterday's annual retail trade revision by the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth declined from -0.76 percentage points to -1.11 percentage points after this morning's advance reports on durable manufacturing and wholesale and retail inventories from the Census Bureau. The forecast of real equipment investment growth increased from 5.5 percent to 6.6 percent after the durable manufacturing report and the incorporation of previously published data on light truck sales to businesses from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.7% for 2017:Q1 and 2.1% for 2017:Q2.

Mixed news from this week's data releases left the nowcast for Q1 and Q2 essentially unchanged.
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2017 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.1% annualized in Q1.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 56.5, down from 57.7 in March.

• At 10:00 AM, <University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 98.0, unchanged from the preliminary reading 98.0.