Monday, March 06, 2017

Tuesday: Trade Deficit

by Bill McBride on 3/06/2017 07:49:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rate Losing Streak Pauses

After moving higher for 5 days in a row, mortgage rates finally moved a bit lower today [4.24% 30 year fixed on top tier].  The improvement was fairly small, however, merely undoing Friday's modest move higher.

It would take something very compelling to push rates significantly lower between now and next Wednesday's Fed announcement.  This could come in the form of shockingly bad employment numbers on Friday or massive geopolitical drama, but until it happens, it's safer to remain defensive with respect to locking and floating. Inclined floaters should understand there's not a huge payout if rates manage to improve this week.
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $48.5 billion in January from $44.3 billion in December.

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for a $18.3 billion increase in credit.