Sunday, February 19, 2017

Don't like the data? Change it!

From the WSJ: Trump Administration Considers Change in Calculating U.S. Trade Deficit
The Trump administration is considering changing the way it calculates U.S. trade deficits, a shift that would make the country’s trade gap appear larger than it had in past years ...

The leading idea under consideration would exclude from U.S. exports any goods first imported into the country, such as cars, and then transferred to a third country like Canada or Mexico unchanged, these people told The Wall Street Journal.

Economists say that approach would inflate trade deficit numbers because it would typically count goods as imports when they come into the country but not count the same goods when they go back out, known as re-exports.
I'm all for constantly evaluating methods, and improving data collection and reporting, but this - as reported - doesn't seem to make sense.

If a car is imported to the U.S., and then is unchanged and exported to a third country, it seems there would be two choices: 1) Count it is an import AND an export, or 2) don't count it as either an import or export (it is just passing through).    But counting the import and not the export makes as much sense as counting the export, but not the import.  Crazy.

4 comments:

  1. Just add it to the Shadow Statistics website as another manipulated govt statistic. Ugh. Next thing you know Trump will be calling all non-whites as Muslims to not be counted in the census or something else bazar. The American culture as described in the Constitution and that I grew up with in the 1960s seems to be breaking down into the worst version of tribalism with the hatred of tribalism taking power as a majority? I really don't understand what's going on. Plus, I hate to yield to the hyperbole on fake enemies, and War mongoling. Your thoughts?

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  2. Oh, well, shortly nobody will beleven any thing. He won't give any thoughts because the comments section is dead.

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  3. LL That's pretty much what I have learned here is pick your point and adjust till it works.

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  4. I guess we can talk to each other but I prefer Rob's blog for that.

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