Thursday, January 05, 2017

Goldman's December NFP Preview

by Bill McBride on 1/05/2017 05:54:00 PM

A few excerpts from Goldman Sachs' December Payroll Preview by economist Spencer Hill:

We forecast that nonfarm payroll employment increased 180k in December ... Our forecast for steady payroll gains reflects encouraging labor market surveys overall, as well as our expectation of above-trend growth in the transportation industry related to strong online holiday shopping.

We expect a one-tenth rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.7%, recouping part of its 0.3pp decline last month (to 4.64% unrounded). Average hourly earnings likely rebounded 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in November, boosted by more favorable calendar effects, with the year-over-year rate likely to accelerate 0.3pp to 2.8%, matching its post-crisis high.
...
Tomorrow’s employment report will be accompanied by the annual revision to the household survey, with potential revisions to the last 5 years of seasonally adjusted household data. ... The revisions to the household survey accompanying the December report are usually minor, and last year’s revisions did not result in a change to any of the monthly unemployment rates for 2015.
emphasis added
The December employment report will be released tomorrow, and the consensus is for an increase of 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.7%.