Wednesday, September 07, 2016

Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales up 14%, Inventory up 3% YoY

by Bill McBride on 9/07/2016 04:33:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 3.4% year-over-year in August.  This is the sixth consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in August were up 13.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 20.3% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 3.4% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow in Phoenix.    Prices in Phoenix are up 1.6% through June (about a 3.2% annual rate) - slower than in 2015.

August Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Aug-085,660---1,00417.7%53,5691---
Aug-098,00841.5%2,84935.6%38,085-28.9%
Aug-107,358-8.1%3,12942.5%44,30716.3%
Aug-118,71218.4%3,95345.4%26,983-39.1%
Aug-127,574-13.1%3,38244.7%20,934-22.4%
Aug-137,055-6.9%2,40934.1%21,4442.4%
Aug-146,431-8.8%1,62125.2%26,13821.9%
Aug-157,0239.2%1,58822.6%22,554-13.7%
Aug-167,97513.6%1,61620.3%23,3183.4%
1 August 2008 probably includes pending listings