Friday, September 30, 2016

Chicago PMI increase in September, Final Sept Consumer Sentiment at 91.2

by Bill McBride on 9/30/2016 11:18:00 AM

Chicago PMI: September Chicago Business Barometer Up 2.7 Points to 54.2

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased 2.7 points to 54.2 in September from 51.5 in August, recovering most of lost ground experienced in the previous month.
In response to September’s special question, 79% of Chicago panellists said the run-up to November Presidential Elections is having a negligible impact on business.
“Economic growth in the US appears to have picked up a little at the end of the third quarter and although the Employment component fell, this was on the back of a relatively strong showing in the previous month. Note Employment usually lags changes in orders and output, so it was not that surprising to see this component weakening in September,” said Lorena Castellanos, senior economist at MNI Indicators
emphasis added
This was above the consensus forecast of 52.0.

Consumer Sentiment
Click on graph for larger image.

The final consumer sentiment reading was 91.2 in September, up from 89.8 in August.
"Confidence edged upward in September due to gains among higher income households, while the Sentiment Index among households with incomes under $75,000 has remained at exactly the same level for the third consecutive month. Importantly, the data provide no evidence of an upward trend as the average level of the Sentiment Index since the start of 2016 is nearly identical with the September level (91.4 versus 91.2). "
emphasis added
This was above the consensus forecast.