Sunday, July 17, 2016

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 7/17/2016 06:57:00 PM

From Tim Duy on Friday: Data Dump

Interesting mix of data today that will give monetary policymakers plenty of food for thought. My guess is that it will probably drive a deeper division in the Fed between those who looking to secure two hikes this year rather and those good with just one or none at all.
Bottom Line: Generally solid data sufficient to keep the prospect of a rate hike or two alive for this year. But soft or mixed enough on key points to lean policy closer to the former than the latter.
Schedule for Week of July 17, 2016

• At 10:00 AM ET, the July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  61, up from 60 in June.  Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P are up 4 and DOW futures are up 35 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $45.91 per barrel and Brent at $47.61 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $51, and Brent was at $56 - so prices are down 10% to 15% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.21 per gallon (down over $0.50 per gallon from a year ago).