Sunday, July 17, 2016

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 7/17/2016 06:57:00 PM

From Tim Duy on Friday: Data Dump

Interesting mix of data today that will give monetary policymakers plenty of food for thought. My guess is that it will probably drive a deeper division in the Fed between those who looking to secure two hikes this year rather and those good with just one or none at all.
...
Bottom Line: Generally solid data sufficient to keep the prospect of a rate hike or two alive for this year. But soft or mixed enough on key points to lean policy closer to the former than the latter.
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of July 17, 2016

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  61, up from 60 in June.  Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P are up 4 and DOW futures are up 35 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $45.91 per barrel and Brent at $47.61 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $51, and Brent was at $56 - so prices are down 10% to 15% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.21 per gallon (down over $0.50 per gallon from a year ago).