Friday, July 15, 2016

Earlier: Preliminary Consumer Sentiment at 89.5 in July

by Bill McBride on 7/15/2016 08:33:00 PM

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July was at 89.5, down from 93.5 in June:

"The early July decline in consumer sentiment was due to increased concerns about prospects for the national economy that were mainly voiced by high income households. Prior to the Brexit vote, virtually no consumer thought the issue would have the slightest impact on the U.S. economy. Following the Brexit vote, it was mentioned by record numbers of consumers, especially high income consumers. Nearly one-in-four (24%) households with incomes in the top third mentioned Brexit when asked to identify any recent economic news that they had heard. For these households, the initial impact on domestic stock prices translated Brexit into personal wealth losses. While stock prices quickly rebounded, an underlying sense of uncertainty about global prospects as well as the outlook for the domestic economy have not faded. To be sure, the overall decline in the Sentiment Index was rather minor, and could be anticipated to recover some of those losses in late July or early August. Importantly, the least affected components have been personal finances and buying plans."
emphasis added
Consumer Sentiment
Click on graph for larger image.