by Bill McBride on 5/17/2016 06:54:00 PM
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
• At 2:00 PM, the Fed will release the FOMC Minutes for the meeting of April 26-27, 2016
From Tim Duy: Fed Officials Come Looking For A Fight
[A] non-trivial contingent of the Fed does not want to leave June off the table. That is a message that came thorough loud and clear today. ... there is a message here - many FOMC participants want to go into the June meeting with a reasonable chance that they will hike rates. They don't want the outcome of this meeting to be a foregone conclusion.
The more hawkish Fedspeak could be foreshadowing that the minutes of the April FOMC meeting will have a hawkish tilt.
Bottom Line: Today's Fed speakers came looking for a fight with financial market participants. They don't like the low odds assigned to the June meeting. I don't think June is a go; the data isn't quite there yet. But odds are greater than 15%, in my opinion.