Sunday, April 17, 2016

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 4/17/2016 07:28:00 PM

For amusement, the Barron's cover this week says "Detroit is Back!" Hmmm ... the correct time to be looking for the bottom in auto sales was in 2009.   It has been a nice ride.

Note: Some yellow journalism sites will trumpet the Barron's cover this week, but remember that they missed the bottom for auto sales in 2009.   Someday I'll be bearish again (I was a Grizzly bear when I started this blog), but always bearish is mostly wrong!

From the WSJ: Oil Prices Fall After Producers Fail to Reach Deal at Doha

Oil prices opened sharply lower in early Asian trading hours on Monday after major oil producers ended their meeting in Doha, Qatar, over the weekend without reaching an agreement to cap production.
...
U.S. crude plunged 6.7% at $37.70 a barrel and Brent was down 6.9% at $40.14 a barrel in early Asian trading.
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of April 17, 2016

Monday:
• 10:00 AM, the April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  59, up from 58 in March.  Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 9 and DOW futures are down 75 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $38.26 per barrel and Brent at $40.14 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $56, and Brent was at $61 - so prices are down about 33% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.12 per gallon (down about $0.30 per gallon from a year ago).