Monday, April 18, 2016

Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in March

by Bill McBride on 4/18/2016 04:34:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in March

Based on publicly-available state and local realtor/MLS reports released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million in March, up 3.7% from February’s preliminary pace (which should be revised up slightly), and up 0.4% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should register a slightly higher YOY gain, as there was one more business day this March compared to last March.

Local realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s estimate of the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of March should be about 5.0% higher than February’s preliminary estimate, and down 1.8% from last February.

Finally, local/realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s estimate of the median existing single-family home sales price in March should be up by about 4.7% from a year earlier.

CR Note: March existing home sales will be released on Wednesday, and the The consensus is for 5.27 million SAAR (the same as Lawler).