by Bill McBride on 2/11/2016 08:22:00 PM
Thursday, February 11, 2016
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for January will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.2% in January.
• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for February). The consensus is for a reading of 92.5, up from 92.0 in January.
• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for November. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in inventories.
• At 11:00 AM, the New York Fed will release their Q4 2015 Household Debt and Credit Report
On Sacramento: During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For a few years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes with a dramatic shift from distressed sales to more normal equity sales.
This data suggests healing in the Sacramento market and other distressed markets are showing similar improvement. Note: The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.
In January, total sales were up 3.9% from January 2015, and conventional equity sales were up 11.3% compared to the same month last year.
In December, 9.2% of all resales were distressed sales. This was up from 7.6% last month, and down from 16.6% in January 2015.
The percentage of REOs was at 4.3% in January, and the percentage of short sales was 4.9%.
Here are the statistics.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales.
There has been a sharp increase in conventional (equity) sales that started in 2012 (blue) as the percentage of distressed sales declined sharply.
Active Listing Inventory for single family homes decreased 25.0% year-over-year (YoY) in January. This was the ninth consecutive monthly YoY decrease in inventory in Sacramento.
Cash buyers accounted for 18.4% of all sales (frequently investors).
Summary: This data suggests a more normal market with fewer distressed sales, more equity sales, and less investor buying.