by Bill McBride on 1/12/2016 08:34:00 PM
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
• At 2:00 PM, The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for December.
This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.
For the thirteen consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from the prior year.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in December were up 4.3% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.9% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now down 8.0% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
With falling inventory, prices increased a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline). Prices are already up 4.6% through October according the Case-Shiller (about double the pace for 2014).
|December Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS|
|1 December 2008 probably includes pending listings|