by Bill McBride on 12/01/2015 08:16:00 PM
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
An excerpt from Tim Duy at Fed Watch: The Final Countdown
Bottom Line: Just how data-dependent is the Fed when it comes to December? Not much, I think. They are likely just looking for evidence that basic labor market trends remain intact to justify pulling the pin on higher rates. Absent any sharp financial disruptions or disastrous data, it looks like we are on the final countdown to the first rate hike of this cycle. Beyond that, they will proceed very cautiously; this is especially the case if they don’t see evidence of still-declining slack in the form of rising wages and inflation. And if the economy turns choppy as the drivers of recent growth loose their momentum, policy will turn choppy as well. Indeed, in such an environment, future rate hikes would likely comes in fits and starts. Thus while 100bp of tightening is a reasonable baseline for next year, the path is not likely to be a smooth 25bp every other meeting. That will likely pose some interesting communications challenges for the Fed.Wednesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 183,000 payroll jobs added in November, up from 182,000 in October.
• At 12:25 PM, Speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Economic Outlook, At the Economic Club of Washington, Washington, D.C.
• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
Posted by Bill McBride on 12/01/2015 08:16:00 PM