Thursday, December 03, 2015

Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit

by Bill McBride on 12/03/2015 07:58:00 PM

Fed Chair Janet Yellen was asked today about Citi's research suggesting a 65% chance of a recession in 2016.  Yellen said she thought the odds of a recession were much lower than 65%.

This is just an historical statistical approach based on elapsed time.

Looking at the economic data, the odds of a recession in 2016 are very low (extremely unlikely).  I'm not even on recession watch.  No worries.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for November. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November, down from the 271,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.0%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $40.6 billion in October from $40.8 billion in September.