Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales up 9%, Inventory down 14%

by Bill McBride on 9/08/2015 01:57:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

For the ninth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in August were up 9.2% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 22.6% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 13.7% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices are increasing a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 2.5% through June (prices increased more in 6 months in 2015, than all of 2014).

August Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Aug-085,660---1,00417.7%53,5691---
Aug-098,00841.5%2,84935.6%38,085-28.9%
Aug-107,358-8.1%3,12942.5%44,30716.3%
Aug-118,71218.4%3,95345.4%26,983-39.1%
Aug-127,574-13.1%3,38244.7%20,934-22.4%
Aug-137,055-6.9%2,40934.1%21,4442.4%
Aug-146,431-8.8%1,62125.2%26,13821.9%
Aug-157,0239.2%1,58822.6%22,554-13.7%
1 August 2008 probably includes pending listings