by Bill McBride on 9/30/2015 05:27:00 PM
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in August to 1.62% from 1.63% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.99% in August 2014, and this is the lowest level since August 2008.
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Click on graph for larger image
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has only fallen 0.37 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until 2017.
The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe Fannie Mae serious delinquencies will be close to normal some time in 2017. This elevated delinquency rate is mostly related to older loans - the lenders are still working through the backlog.