Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Wednesday: Yellen, Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey, Beige Book and more

by Bill McBride on 7/14/2015 06:34:00 PM

From the WSJ: White House Cuts Growth Forecast for 2015, 2016

The White House said it sees U.S. growth rising by just 2% this year before rebounding to 2.9% in 2016—down from its earlier forecast of 3% growth for both 2015 and 2016 released in February—after the economy stalled during the first quarter.
The White House estimates that the annual budget deficit will fall to $455 billion this year, down 22% from its estimate of $583 billion in February.
It sees the unemployment rate falling to 5.3% this year and 4.9% next year, down from forecasts of 5.4% and 5.1%, respectively, published in February.
Due to demographics, 2% really is the new 4%.  But there is good news on the deficit and unemployment!

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5, up from -2.0 last month (above zero is expansion).

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 78.1%.

• At 10:00 AM, Testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.