Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales Up 20.5%, Inventory DOWN 16% Year-over-year

by Bill McBride on 7/07/2015 05:51:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

For the seventh consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in June were up 20.5% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.0% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 16.4% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices might increase a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 1.8% through April (increasing faster than in 2014).

June Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
June 20085,748---1,09319.0%53,8262---
June 20099,32562.2%3,44336.9%38,358---2
June 20109,278-0.5%3,49837.7%41,8699.2%
June 201111,13420.0%5,00144.9%29,203-30.3%
June 20129,133-18.0%4,27246.8%19,857-32.0%
June 20138,150-10.8%3,05537.5%19,541-1.6%
June 20147,239-11.2%1,85425.6%27,95443.1%
June 20158,27320.5%2,00523.0%23,377-16.4%
1 June 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more
2 June 2008 Inventory includes pending