Tuesday, June 09, 2015

Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Sales Decreased 2.5% YoY

by Bill McBride on 6/09/2015 12:31:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR reports steady home sales and prices with tight housing supply

According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in May was 3,363, down from 3,450 one year ago. Compared to May 2014, 2.6 percent fewer homes and 2.2 percent fewer condos and townhomes sold this May.
...
GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In May, 7.3 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 7.9 percent one year ago. Another 8.0 percent of May sales were bank-owned, down 9.1 percent from one year ago.
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The total number of single-family homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service in May was 13,569, down 0.5 percent from one year ago. GLVAR tracked a total of 3,470 condos, high-rise condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS in May, down 4.8 percent from one year ago.

By the end of May, GLVAR reported 7,133 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s up 7.8 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 2,268 properties listed without offers in May represented a 0.4 percent increase from one year ago.
emphasis added
There are several key trends that we've been following:

1) Overall sales were down 2.5% year-over-year.

2) Conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were unchanged year-over-year.  In May 2014, 83.0% of all sales were conventional equity.  In May 2015, 84.7% were standard equity sales.   Note: In May 2013 (two years ago), only 57.9% were equity!  There was a significant change from 2013 to 2014.

3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 40.2% in May 2014 to 29.1% in May 2015. (investor buying appears to be declining).

4) Non-contingent inventory is up 7.8% year-over-year. The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build is slowing  - but still ongoing.


Las Vegas: Year-over-year
Change in Non-contingent
Inventory
MonthYoY
Jan-13-58.3%
Feb-13-53.4%
Mar-13-42.1%
Apr-13-24.1%
May-13-13.2%
Jun-133.7%
Jul-139.0%
Aug-1341.1%
Sep-1360.5%
Oct-1373.4%
Nov-1377.4%
Dec-1378.6%
Jan-1496.2%
Feb-14107.3%
Mar-14127.9%
Apr-14103.1%
May-14100.6%
Jun-1486.2%
Jul-1455.2%
Aug-1438.8%
Sep-1429.5%
Oct-1425.6%
Nov-1420.0%
Dec-1418.0%
Jan-1512.9%
Feb-1515.8%
Mar-1512.2%
Apr-157.6%
May-157.8%